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Week Ahead: Cyber Monday, CCI, CPI, GDP & PMI

Plus500 | Monday 27 November 2023

This week, key economic releases from the US, Australia, and the Eurozone are set to take place, hence providing traders and investors with much-needed information about the trajectory of the global economy as the year approaches its end. In addition, the holiday shopping season is set to continue with Cyber Monday sales. 

From retail shopping to economic indicators, here are this week’s anticipated economic events and data releases:

An illustration of Economic Indicators

Cyber Monday Sales Commence 

Today, Monday, November 27, marks Cyber Monday, a shopping day that takes place the Monday after Thanksgiving and Black Friday and is considered the US’ biggest yearly online shopping event. 

While the effects of this day are yet to be seen, according to Adobe Analytics, buyers are expected to spend $12 billion this day. If these predictions come to fruition, then this will be a 5.4% increase from last year’s sales. 

You can find out more about Cyber Monday’s effect on the stock market in our article “How Do Black Friday & Cyber Monday Affect the Stock Market.”

What Can US Consumer Confidence (CCI) Reveal?

On Tuesday, November 28, November’s US Consumer Confidence (CCI) data is set to be released at 3:00 PM GMT. 

The CCI, a survey-based metric presented by The Conference Board, serves as a gauge of consumer sentiment (reflecting the prevailing optimism or pessimism concerning consumers’ anticipated financial circumstances). (Source: Investopedia)

Accordingly, higher consumer optimism typically translates into increased spending patterns. This surge in consumer expenditure has the potential to stimulate economic growth. 

On the flip side, when consumers are pessimistic, they may tend to shy away from spending, which, in turn, can lead to slower economic activity and increase the chances of a possible recession

The projected median indicates a potential decline to 101.0 from October's 102.6. Moreover, since the estimate range spans from 104.0 to 100.0, any release approaching the upper or lower bounds of this range can induce market volatility in the USD and other markets.

CPI and RBNZ Decision: Where Are Australia’s and New Zealand’s Economies Headed?

Wednesday is poised to be a busy day for the Australian and New Zealand economies. Australian CPI data is scheduled to be released at 12:30 AM GMT, followed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) rate decision at 1:00 AM GMT.

It is no secret that many economies around the world, including Australia’s, have suffered numerous hurdles. For example, recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed a significant setback in real household disposable income. The past financial year witnessed an unprecedented 5.1% decline, marking the steepest annual drop on record. 

Despite this, Australia’s upcoming CPI is expected to show a slight moderation reaching 5.5% compared to the previous 5.6%. 

As for New Zealand’s interest rate decision, many economists expect rates to remain unchanged from the last meeting, but only time will tell what the Central Bank will decide. 

Eurozone CPI: Has Inflation Left the Euro Area?

Besides Australia, this week, the Eurozone (Euro Area) CPI is scheduled to be released on Thursday. Many economists are expecting the data to show a drop and improvement in inflation rates to 2.8% from the previous 2.9% while the core reading is expected to drop to 4% from the previous 4.2%.

US GDP and PMI: Is the World’s Biggest Economy Growing?

Traders and consumers alike may want to keep track of Wednesday’s US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data at 1:00 am GMT to see where the world’s biggest economy might be headed in the near future. 

GDP refers to the value of goods and services within a country’s borders during a particular timeframe and can reflect its economic growth or decline. A higher GDP usually indicates more growth, while a lower GDP typically suggests a possible decline.

While the GDP numbers for Q3 are still pending finalization, preliminary estimates indicate a range of 4.6% to 5.2%, suggesting a potential economic expansion at an annual rate of 5%.

In addition, Friday’s US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is set to be released at 3:00 PM GMT with estimates pointing toward an improvement in November.

Conclusion 

In conclusion, this week can be an important one for traders, investors, consumers, and analysts as it can provide them with valuable insights into the state of the global economy ahead of this year’s end. 


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