September 2025 Final Inflation: Germany CPI, Spain CPI, Poland CPI & Eurozone CPI

The final Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for Germany, Spain, Poland, and the Eurozone will be released during the week of 12 October 2025, reflecting the final inflation figures for September 2025. These reports may be crucial for traders, investors, and policymakers as they influence European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decisions and currency markets.

Let’s dive in:

TL;DR

• Final September 2025 CPI reports release 14-17 October across Europe

• Germany's year-over-year inflation is expected at 2.4% (up from 2.2%)

• Spain CPI holding at 2.9%, Poland steady at 2.9%

• The Eurozone’s CPI rose to 2.2%

• Core inflation remains elevated across the region, with services inflation driving price pressures

• These figures could shape ECB interest rate expectations and potentially impact the EUR/USD trading dynamics

CPI Reports This Week

• Germany CPI: Tuesday, 14 October 2025

• Spain CPI: Wednesday, 15 October 2025

• Poland CPI: Wednesday, 15 October 2025

• Eurozone CPI: Friday, 17 October 2025

Germany CPI (14 October 2025)

Inflation Forecast

Germany's final CPI report for September 2025 will be released on Tuesday, 14 October 2025, by the Federal Statistical Office. The annual inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.4%, up from 2.2% recorded in August 2025, according to preliminary data and analysts' forecasts

Monthly Changes

On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices are anticipated to rise by 0.2% in September 2025. This modest increase reflects ongoing price pressures in specific sectors, whilst energy costs show signs of stabilisation.

Core Inflation Trends

Core inflation in Germany, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is running at approximately 2.8%. This elevated core reading suggests underlying price pressures remain sticky despite headline inflation moderating from previous peaks.

Key Drivers

The inflation dynamics in Germany are primarily influenced by:

• Services sector price increases, particularly in hospitality and transport

• Wage growth pressures are translating into consumer prices

• Base effects from energy price comparisons year-over-year

These figures will be closely monitored by the ECB as Germany represents the largest economy in the Eurozone, and its inflation trajectory significantly influences broader monetary policy decisions. (Source: Deutsche Bundesbank)

Spain CPI (15 October 2025)

Expected Inflation Rate

Spain's final CPI report is scheduled for release on Wednesday, 15 October 2025, by the National Statistics Institute (INE). Year-over-year inflation is expected to remain around 2.9%, following an acceleration to this level in September 2025, the highest rate in seven months, though slightly below the 3.0% forecast.

Monthly Price Movements

Month-on-month, the CPI is anticipated to show a slight decline or remain flat. Recent data showed September recorded a -0.4% monthly change, reflecting seasonal factors and the end of summer tourism price premiums.

Core Inflation Analysis

Core inflation in Spain, excluding volatile food and energy components, is expected to hold steady at approximately 2.3%. This indicates that whilst headline inflation has accelerated, underlying price pressures remain relatively contained.

Inflation Drivers

Spain's inflation trajectory is primarily driven by:

• Fuel and electricity price increases

• Transport cost inflation

• Base effects from energy comparisons

• Tourism-related services pricing

Despite recent acceleration, Spain's inflation shows signs of stabilisation, though it remains above the ECB's 2.0% target. (Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística)

Poland CPI (15 October 2025)

Release Details

Poland's final CPI report for September 2025 is scheduled for release on Wednesday, 15 October 2025, at 08:00 GMT by Statistics Poland.

Inflation Expectations

The annual CPI inflation rate is expected to hold steady at 2.9%, unchanged from both August and September's preliminary readings. Monthly CPI is anticipated to show no change (0.0%) compared to the previous month.

Monetary Policy Context

The improved inflation outlook recently prompted Poland's Monetary Policy Council to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in early October 2025. The National Bank of Poland cited stable inflation trends and moderate wage growth as key factors supporting the rate reduction.

Core Inflation Dynamics

Core inflation in Poland, excluding food and energy, is considered stable despite ongoing pressures from:

• Energy price adjustments

• Wage growth in the services sector

• Zloty exchange rate fluctuations

This CPI release reflects the NBP's focus on maintaining inflation near its target in the medium term whilst monitoring inflation risks from both domestic and external factors. (Source: Pap Biznes)

Eurozone CPI (17 October 2025)

Aggregate Inflation Forecast

The Eurozone's final CPI report is scheduled for release on Friday, 17 October 2025, by Eurostat. Year-over-year inflation is expected to rise to approximately 2.2%, up from 2.0% recorded in August 2025.

Monthly Inflation Trajectory

Monthly inflation is forecasted to increase modestly by around 0.1%, indicating a gradual uptick in price pressures across the currency bloc.

Component Breakdown

Inflation pressures in the Eurozone are primarily driven by:

• Energy Prices: A smaller year-over-year decline of -0.4% compared to -2.0% in August 2025, indicating energy deflation is moderating.

• Services Inflation: Expected to accelerate to 3.2% annually from 3.1% previously, reflecting persistent wage-driven price increases in the services sector.

• Core Inflation: Excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, core inflation is estimated to remain steady at approximately 2.3%, its lowest level since January 2022.

ECB Policy Implications

This inflation data can be critical for ECB monetary policy calibration. With headline inflation remaining slightly above the ECB's 2.0% target and core inflation proving sticky, policymakers face a delicate balancing act between supporting economic growth and ensuring price stability.

The persistent services inflation at 3.2% suggests wage pressures continue to feed through to consumer prices, potentially limiting the ECB's scope for aggressive interest rate cuts in the near term. (Source: Eurostat)

Conclusion 

The week of October 12, 2025, brings crucial inflation data from across Europe, including final September CPI figures from Germany, Spain, Poland, and the Eurozone. The expected readings, at 2.4% for Germany, 2.9% for Spain, 2.9% for Poland, and 2.2% for the Eurozone, indicate that inflation remains above the ECB's 2.0% target across most of the region. 

Core inflation metrics reveal persistent underlying price pressures, particularly in the services sectors where wage growth continues to drive costs higher. Energy price deflation is moderating, removing a key disinflationary force that had supported declines in headline inflation in recent months. For traders and investors, these CPI releases might significantly influence the EUR/USD exchange rate expectations and the performance of  European equity indices. 

Higher-than-expected inflation could limit the ECB's ability to cut interest rates aggressively, potentially supporting the Euro whilst weighing on growth-sensitive equities. 

The data will be closely scrutinised by ECB policymakers ahead of future monetary policy decisions, with markets pricing in the likelihood of further rate adjustments based on the

*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice.