Oil Above $100: How the Hormuz Crisis Is Shaping the Markets

The Middle East conflict has kept the Strait of Hormuz functionally closed since early March 2026, removing roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil supply from the market. Brent crude futures rose to approximately $115.27 per barrel in early Asian trading on Monday, 30 March, while WTI climbed to around $101.25. Over the weekend, two developments widened the crisis: Yemen's Houthi rebels entered the war with missile strikes on Israel, and President Trump told the Financial Times he wants to "take the oil in Iran," raising the prospect of seizing Kharg Island.

This article examines how the disruption seems to be transmitting across oil, natural gas, FX, interest rates, and equities, and identifies the key data releases and deadlines traders should watch this week.

TL;DR

• Brent crude rose to approximately $115, and WTI crossed $101 in early Monday trading (30 March 2026), heading for a record monthly gain

• Yemen's Houthis launched missile strikes on Israel on 28 March (for the first time in a while), raising the risk of a second chokepoint at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait

• Trump told the Financial Times on 29 March that seizing Iran's Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports - remains under consideration

• The IEA's record 400-million-barrel emergency reserve release is underway, but analysts note it covers only a limited period of a full blockade

• Trump extended his pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure to 6 April, creating a defined binary deadline

• Gold was flat in early trade on Friday at $4,490, down about 15% so far this year. A firm dollar and stronger US interest rates have trumped safe-haven demand for the precious metal.

• The S&P 500 closed lower Friday, 27 March, down 1.67%, with the index below its 200-day moving average

Latest Middle East Tensions: Weekend Escalation

The conflict widened sharply over the final days of March.

The Houthis Entered the Conflict

Yemen's Houthi rebels launched ballistic missiles at southern Israel on Saturday, 28 March, marking their first attack since the October 2025 ceasefire ended Houthi involvement in the Gaza-related Red Sea campaign. Houthi military spokesman Brigadier-General Yahya Saree stated the strikes targeted "sensitive Israeli military sites" and that operations would continue. Both missiles were intercepted, with no casualties reported. The key market concern is not the missile strikes themselves but the potential for Houthis to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait,  a waterway they previously demonstrated the ability to threaten when they attacked over 100 merchant vessels during the Gaza conflict between November 2023 and January 2025. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM had already paused trans-Suez sailings.

Trump Raises the Prospect of Seizing Iran's Oil

In a Financial Times interview published Sunday, 29 March, Trump made his most direct comments on Iran's oil: "My favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran." He specifically discussed Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports, acknowledging that a seizure would require US forces to remain "for a while". The US had already struck military targets on Kharg Island on 13 March.

Troop Buildup

US Central Command confirmed the arrival of thousands of sailors and Marines in the Middle East on Saturday, including personnel aboard USS Tripoli. Elements of the 82nd Airborne are also being deployed.

Continued Strikes

Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on 27 March, injuring at least 15 US troops, including five seriously. More than two dozen US troops have been wounded at the base over the past week. Kuwait reported a worker killed in an Iranian attack on a power and desalination plant. Iran's Red Crescent reported at least 1,900 people killed since the conflict began on 28 February.

Diplomatic Signals

Pakistan is acting as an intermediary. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed a 15-point framework has been delivered, while Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi denied any direct negotiations. Foreign ministers from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan met in Islamabad on Sunday to discuss de-escalation. Trump extended his pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure to 6 April at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

The Hormuz Crisis Explained

The Strait of Hormuz has a minimum width of only 34 kilometres and is an important shipping lane. Approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude oil, which means around 20 per cent of global seaborne oil trade, flows through the channel. In a development that has brought oil prices to new heights, on 2 March 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran blocked the Strait. More than four weeks on, the number of tankers that are currently navigating the strait is down by more than 90 per cent. This supply disruption is according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), is the largest the world has ever experienced.

Bypass capacity exists but is limited. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline was approaching its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day as of mid-March, according to Aramco's CEO. The UAE has additional pipeline capacity to the port of Fujairah. However, these routes cannot replace the full volume that normally transits the strait.

The IEA's 32 member countries agreed on 11 March to release a record 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, with the US contributing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The US Department of Energy indicated full delivery would take approximately 120 days.

The Double Chokepoint Risk

If the Houthis disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait alongside the already-closed Hormuz Strait, roughly 30% of the world's seaborne oil could be affected simultaneously. Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu, which has become the kingdom's primary bypass route since Hormuz closed, sits within Houthi strike range.

Professor Mohamad Elmasry of the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies described the Houthis entering the war as "very significant," noting that if they move to close the Bab el-Mandeb, "we would have two major choke points closed along with the Strait of Hormuz.”This scenario has no modern precedent and would likely cause significant repricing across energy and freight markets.

Still, only time will tell what lies ahead.

Cross-Asset Readthrough

• Energy divergence: US natural gas prices (Henry Hub) remain relatively insulated from the crisis because the US is largely self-sufficient, while European TTF natural gas prices have climbed sharply as the continent competes for available LNG cargoes. The Brent-WTI spread has widened, reflecting physical market stress outside the US versus the relative insulation of American supply.

• Rates: Higher oil feeds directly into inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated that a one-quarter closure of the strait would raise average WTI prices to $98 per barrel and lower global GDP growth by an annualised 2.9 percentage points in Q2 2026. CME FedWatch now prices out any 2026 rate cuts as the base case, with a majority probability of rates on hold through year-end. US Treasury yields rose to their highest since July, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.48% on 27 March.

• FX: Commodity-exporter currencies like CAD and NOK are outperforming oil-importer currencies like INR and KRW. The US dollar is trading generally higher as a safe-haven asset.

• Equities: The S&P 500 closed at 6,368.85 on 27 March, falling 1.67% on the day. The VIX rose to 31.05, up 13.16%. The Nasdaq declined 2.15%.

• Gold: The price of gold sits at around $4,490 per troy ounce as March comes to a close. The precious metal has dropped by about 15% from the high near $5,200 it reached during March 2026 on concerns of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, a strong dollar and sharply rising real yields. But at $4,350, buyers have returned to the market. (Source: CBS News)

What to Watch This Week

• Monday 30 March: Oil's opening reaction to the Houthis' entry and Trump's Kharg Island comments. Fed Chair Powell speaks

• Tuesday 31 March: China NBS Manufacturing PMI. Eurozone flash HICP. Month-end and quarter-end rebalancing flows may distort moves.

• Wednesday 01 April: EIA weekly crude oil inventory report - the most closely watched single data point for oil traders this week. ISM Manufacturing PMI

• Thursday 02 April: Weekly jobless claims

• Friday 3 April (Good Friday): March nonfarm payrolls. European markets closed, meaning thinner liquidity. The 6 April deadline looms over the weekend, creating a gap risk into Monday

Conclusion

It’s been two months since tensions in the Strait of Hormuz first emerged as a global risk. This week, a number of new updates emerged, including potential Houthi involvement, an escalation in rhetoric from US President Trump regarding an attack on Kharg Island, and a specific deadline of 6 April. The largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market, according to the IEA, is currently interfacing with a diverse set of cross-asset markets and will undoubtedly shape the interpretation of this week’s data points, already busy enough given the highly concentrated geopolitical deadlines in play. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee for the second time in two months, just before the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the Fed is widely expected to maintain its current policy. Additionally, a significant amount of key economic data will be released globally.

*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above is for marketing and general informational purposes only, and are only projections and should not be taken as investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation.