Tuesday 08 October 2024
Economic Releases on the Week of 12 August: Earnings & More
The markets and global economies are poised for a plethora of events and releases during the week of 12 August, which could reflect how the economy is faring almost two weeks into August.
Let’s dive deeper into this week’s main economic and financial reports:
US Releases: CPI, Inflation
This week marks a crucial one for US market traders and consumers, as key reports from the world’s biggest economy are set to be released.
On Wednesday, 14 August, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the Federal Reserve’s main inflation gauges, will be released. This release is arguably one of the most anticipated ones. However, it is even more crucial this week because the Fed is still looking for further signs of inflation cooling to cut rates as expected.
The projections for this week’s events are as follows:
Headline inflation is projected to be at +3.0% YoY (similar to June’s figures).
July’s core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) is projected to drop to +3.2% YoY (from +3.3 % in the prior month).
If inflation shows a “broad downside surprise,” the chances of the Fed cutting rates this year can increase. This, in turn, could weaken the US dollar. Conversely, if an upside surprise occurs, the US dollar can be strengthened on lower rate cut bets.
In addition to the CPI, the US retail sales figures will be reported this week on Thursday, 15 August. The data reflects US consumer spending and demand for finished goods and measures inflationary pressures.
Moreover, traders and consumers may want to monitor Thursday’s industrial production and Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for more clues on the health of the US economy.
More US Releases: Jobs, Housing
More releases to keep in mind this week include the following:
Tuesday’s Atalanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic remarks and July’s NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
Thursday’s initial jobless claims, housing market index, industrial production and capacity utilisation, and business inventories.
Friday’s housing starts and remarks from Chicago’s Fed President Austan Goolsbee. (Source: Investopedia)
UK Releases: CPI, Inflation
The United Kingdom’s economy is also poised for an eventful week with the release of Wednesday’s, 14 August, inflation, which is expected to show the following:
July’s Headline CPI inflation is projected to increase to +2.3% YoY (from June’s +2.0%).
July’s core inflation is expected to remain the same at +3.5%.
Interestingly, these figures follow the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest rate decision, which saw the central bank cut rates by 25 basis points for the first time in four years. In addition, the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released on Thursday, 15 August, and UK retail sales will be reported on Friday, 16 August.
These reports can shift the forex market in general and the sterling (GBP).
New Zealand: Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to meet this week and release its rate decision on Wednesday, 14 August.
Expectations seem to be mixed. About 19 out of the 31 economists polled by Reuters project a rate hold for the 9th consecutive meeting. On the other hand,12 of these economists project a 25 basis point cut.
The RBNZ will likely consider that prices cooled in Q2 2024 while unemployment reached its highest level since Q1 2021, showing a less favourable labour market. The country’s economy also entered two technical recessions in about two years.
The decisions and any dovish comments could “underpin” the NZD.
Earnings Releases: Alibaba, Cisco & More
In the corporate sector, more earnings releases are set to take place. Here are some of the most anticipated releases:
Tuesday, 13 August
Wednesday, 14 August
Thursday, 15 August
Conclusion
This week will be eventful, providing traders with key global data that can help them navigate the financial markets with more knowledge and approach the economy more cautiously. Only time will tell what this week will look like and how the results will affect the stock market.
