Oil Climbs Above $100 as US Indices Slip; Coffee Prices Decline
Thursday 12 March 2026
US Jobs Beat Drives Dollar Higher, Gold Slips, Indices Mixed
The delayed January US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report came in stronger than markets had been braced for, prompting a quick repricing of Federal Reserve expectations. Early market moves showed a firmer US dollar and US indices, and pressure on gold as investors weighed whether resilient hiring reduces the urgency for rate cuts.
TL;DR
US January NFP exceeded expectations, signalling continued labour market resilience.
The US dollar strengthened as traders pushed back rate-cut expectations.
The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 showed mixed reactions amid shifting policy outlooks.
Gold prices eased following the stronger jobs data and firmer dollar.
Key developments
US employers added 130,000 jobs in January, while the unemployment rate was 4.3%, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. The report showed job gains in areas such as healthcare and social assistance, with declines noted in some government-related categories, reinforcing the view that labour market conditions remain comparatively steady despite recent growth concerns.
In currencies, the US dollar strengthened as traders recalibrated the likely path of US interest rates after the jobs data. That move was closely tied to shifting expectations around the timing and pace of potential Fed easing, an important driver for the U.S. Dollar Index (DX).
US equities absorbed the jobs surprise with measured moves as investors reassessed the outlook for financial conditions. US stock futures edged higher on Thursday morning after the Dow Jones Index ended a three-session winning streak, with markets adjusting to the stronger-than-expected January payrolls data. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 rose around 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added roughly 0.1%. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 plunged yesterday. (Source: Yahoo Finance)
Gold eased after the payrolls release as the firmer dollar and reduced near-term rate-cut expectations weighed on bullion’s appeal in the immediate reaction.
Additional context
Because the NFP report was released later than usual, it landed at a moment when markets were particularly sensitive to data that could confirm or challenge the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance. With the BLS showing continued job gains and a stable unemployment rate, investors reassessed how quickly inflation and activity might cool, key inputs into rate-path pricing.
Conclusion
The January NFP report reinforced the message that US labour conditions remain resilient, prompting a firmer US dollar, a softer tone in gold, and a more measured response in US equities as investors refocused on the Fed’s next steps. Traders will now look to upcoming inflation and activity data for confirmation on whether policy easing is merely delayed or materially reduced.
*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above is for marketing and general informational purposes only, and are only projections and should not be taken as investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation.
FAQs
What is the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report?
The NFP report, published monthly by the Bureau of Labour Statistics, measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy, excluding farm workers and a few other categories. It is considered a key indicator of economic health.
Why did the US dollar rise after the NFP release?
A stronger-than-expected jobs report can reduce expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. Higher or sustained rates tend to support the US dollar relative to other currencies.
Why did gold fall following the jobs data?
Gold typically moves inversely to the US dollar and real interest rate expectations. A stronger dollar and reduced rate-cut bets can weigh on bullion prices.
