October 2025 Inflation Preview: Germany CPI, Spain CPI & Poland CPI

European inflation figures take centre stage in mid-November as three key economies release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Germany reports on 12 November, followed by Spain and Poland on 14 November, providing crucial insights into price pressures across the continent as the European Central Bank maintains its cautious stance on monetary policy.

TL;DR

• Germany (12 Nov): CPI expected to hold at 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.4% in September

• Spain (14 Nov): Forecast shows acceleration to 3.1% from October's 3.0%

• Poland (14 Nov): Projected slight decline to 2.8% from 2.9%

• Eurozone inflation eased to 2.1% in October, hovering near the ECB's 2% target

• ECB held rates steady at its October meeting, with markets seeing near-zero probability of December rate cut

Germany: Steady Inflation at 2.3%

Germany's Consumer Price Index is expected to remain at the preliminary reading of 2.3% year-on-year when the final figures are released on 12 November. This represents a continued decline from September's 2.4%, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany.

The sustained moderation in German inflation supports the European Central Bank's current policy stance. Following its decision on 30 October to hold rates unchanged, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that inflation remains "close to our two per cent medium-term target.” Germany, as the Eurozone's largest economy, has a significant influence on the bloc's overall inflation trajectory.

A reading in line with forecasts would reinforce market expectations that the ECB will maintain interest rates through year-end. Reuters reports that whilst the chance of a December rate cut is "close to zero," investors still anticipate a 40% probability of easing by mid-2026. (Source: ECB)

Spain: Inflation Pressures Building

Spain's annual CPI is forecast to rise slightly to 3.1% in October from 3.0% in the previous month, according to consensus expectations. If confirmed, this would mark the third consecutive monthly increase, following readings of 2.7% in August and 2.9% in September.

The acceleration in Spanish price growth stands in contrast to the broader Eurozone trend, where inflation eased to 2.1% in October from 2.2% in September. Spain's persistent inflation above target may reflect domestic factors, including robust pricing in the services sector and wage growth.

The Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) will release the data on 14 November at 08:00 GMT. A higher-than-expected reading could raise concerns about heterogeneous inflation dynamics across the Eurozone, potentially complicating the ECB's policy calibration.

Poland: Gradual Disinflation Continues

Poland's CPI is expected to decline marginally to 2.8% year-over-year in October, down from 2.9% in September, when Statistics Poland releases the data on 14 November. The forecast reading would represent the lowest inflation rate since July 2025, when it also registered a 2.9% rate.

Poland's inflation trajectory has shown steady progress toward the National Bank of Poland's 2.5% target, with the rate having fallen from 3.1% in July to its current level. Trading Economics reports that inflation is "expected to be 2.60 per cent by the end of this quarter," suggesting further gradual disinflation ahead.

The central European nation's price pressures remain influenced by volatile food and energy costs, as well as domestic wage dynamics. The October data will provide important guidance for the NBP's monetary policy stance as it weighs the pace of potential rate adjustments.

ECB Policy Implications

These national inflation figures arrive against the backdrop of the ECB's decision in October to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.0% for the third consecutive meeting. The central bank's latest projections forecast inflation of 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, slightly below the 2% target.

However, ECB policymakers remain cautious. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel recently rejected suggestions that inflation is settling durably below 2%. At the same time, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasised the central bank's comfort with current rates, acknowledging a "temporary inflation undershoot" risk.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters, released on 31 October, showed expectations of 2.1% headline inflation for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027, broadly aligning with the ECB's projections.

Conclusion

The upcoming inflation data from Germany, Spain, and Poland will provide valuable insights into the heterogeneity of price pressures across the European Union. Germany's expected stability at 2.3%, Spain's potential acceleration to 3.1%, and Poland's gradual decline to 2.8% illustrate the varied inflation dynamics within the continent.

For currency markets, the euro traded near $1.15 following recent ECB wage data showing easing pay growth. Stronger-than-expected readings, particularly from Spain, could provide modest support for the euro, whilst widespread downside surprises might reinforce expectations for earlier ECB easing.

The reports will be closely scrutinised by policymakers ahead of the ECB's December meeting, when updated economic projections will be published. With inflation hovering near target and growth concerns persisting, the data will help shape the debate over the appropriate pace of future monetary policy adjustments.

*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice.