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April 15th Week Ahead: CPI, Retail Data & Earnings

Plus500 | Monday 15 April 2024

As the ongoing war in the Middle East persists, causing more market uncertainty, many market participants may be looking for additional clues as to how the economy is faring and where it may be headed next. 

Accordingly, this week’s economic releases from the US, China, Japan, New Zealand, and Canada, might provide traders and consumers with much-needed information about the economy. Here’s what you need to know on this week ahead:

April 15th Week Ahead

World’s Biggest Economy Update: US Retail & Manufacturing 

The US is due for important releases today, Monday, April 15 as Retail Sales data and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index are set to be released.

Today’s data is expected to show softer retail sales, as retail is expected to grow by a 0.3% MoM in March, compared to February’s 0.6% rise. Despite this slight slowdown, it is worth noting that according to the Bank of America (BAC), consumer spending is poised to rise due to robust wage growth, lower rent inflation, and tax refunds.

The consumer data can also have an impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. If, for example, the data comes in above expectations, the possibility of a June interest rate cut could be reduced. 

Besides the consumer data, traders may want to track the upcoming manufacturing release from the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. This report is released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank and reflects New York’s business activity. Given the fact that New York is the US’ 27th-largest state by size, its manufacturing activity can provide valuable insights into the state of the overall US economy. 

China’s GDP & Retail: How Is the Land of the Dragon Faring?

China, the world’s second-largest economy, is expected to release its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results on Tuesday, April 16. 

GDP is a measure of a country’s economic health through measuring the total monetary value of its goods and services. As such, Tuesday’s results can help many economists, consumers, and traders understand the Chinese economy better. 

While the actual results are yet to be seen, the QoQ Q1 GDP results are expected to come in at 1.4% while the YoY GDP is expected to reach 4.6%. If these figures are realized, then these would be above the previous QoQ number of 1% and below the YoY GDP of 5.2%. 

This is because, whereas the Chinese economy may slightly be rebounding, it is still ailing and is still considered “fragile,” due to governmental debts, low private-sector spending, and a weakening property sector.

UK Jobs Report & Inflation: Is Unemployment Still High?

The UK’s labor market showed signs of slowing in the last release as unemployment rates ticked higher than expected and job openings dropped. In the upcoming labor report on Tuesday, April 16, the UK’s unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.9%. 

According to some analysts, the expectations for “headline earnings growth is for a small moderation to 5.5%, while [for] ex-bonuses we expect a drop to 5.9% from 6.1%.”

It may be also interesting to note that many analysts may be concerned regarding the accuracy of these results. 

Besides the jobs data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, April 17, hence reflecting inflation rates in the UK. Analysts expect YoY CPI to show a drop to 3.1% compared to the previous 3.4%. In addition, Core CPI is projected to drop to 4.3% YoY vs. the previous 4.5%, and Headline CPI is expected to come in at 0.4%.

These reports are scheduled ahead of the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) meeting on May 9 and can have an effect on the Central Bank’s decisions.

Global CPI Releases: Canada, New Zealand & Japan 

Traders may also want to keep tabs on this week’s scheduled CPI releases from all around the world. 

On Tuesday, April 16, Canada and New Zealand will report their CPI. Canada’s inflation rate is expected to show a slight easing in inflation, while New Zealand’s CPI is expected to show a higher quarterly inflation rate and a lower YoY inflation. 

Furthermore, on Friday, April 19, Japan's CPI is scheduled to be reported and analysts expect a rise in Headline inflation and a slight easing in Core inflation. 

Earnings Reports for the Week

In addition to the abovementioned economic reports, stock traders may be in for an eventful week due to the myriad of scheduled earnings reports

Big banks like Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will release earnings on Tuesday, April 16, while streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) is set to report its data on Thursday, April 18. (Source: Nasdaq)

What will these big corporations reveal, how will the scheduled releases affect the economy, and how will the stock market react? Only time will tell.

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