Week Ahead Economic Calendar: FOMC Minutes, Powell Speech & Central Bank Decisions (6-10 October 2025)

The week ahead economic calendar for 6-10 October 2025 features high-impact events that could drive significant volatility across the markets. Traders may want to prepare for the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday and Jerome Powell's speech on Thursday, both offering critical insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision path. Additionally, eurozone retail sales, UK employment data, and central bank rate decisions in New Zealand and the Philippines will shape market sentiment as investors reassess monetary policy trajectories amid persistent inflation and growth concerns. (Source: S&P Global)

This article breaks down the key economic events and their potential trading implications across major asset classes.

TL;DR: This Week's Key Trading Events

• FOMC Minutes (Wed, 8 Oct): Reveals Fed policymaker disagreements on 2025 rate cuts

• Powell Speech (Thu, 9 Oct): Fed Chair clarifies monetary policy stance amid mixed economic signals

• Eurozone Retail Sales (Mon, 6 Oct): Tests domestic demand strength in recovery phase

• UK Jobs Report (Fri, 10 Oct): KPMG/REC data shows employment trends after PMI weakness

• RBNZ Rate Decision (Wed, 8 Oct): New Governor Anna Breman's first meeting amid recession fears

• Inflation Data: Thailand, Philippines, Brazil, Mexico, Sweden, Norway, Taiwan CPI releases

• Trade Balance: US, Canada, Germany, Taiwan publish export/import data

Monday, 6 October: Eurozone Retail Sales & Construction PMI

Eurozone Retail Sales (August) - 11:00 CET

Why it matters for traders: Eurozone retail sales data will indicate whether consumer spending is supporting the region's tentative economic recovery. Recent PMI surveys showed modest service sector improvements, but manufacturing remains under pressure. Strong retail sales could support the euro and European equity indices, whilst weakness may reinforce dovish ECB expectations.

Construction PMI - France, Germany, Italy & UK

Construction activity data provides insights into sectors sensitive to interest rate changes and fiscal policy. The UK's construction PMI will be particularly watched following disappointing September flash PMI data showing economic deceleration.

Other Monday releases:

• Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)

• Brazil Balance of Trade (September)

• Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

• Hong Kong SAR S&P Global PMI (September)

• India HSBC Services PMI (September)

Tuesday, 7 October: US & Canada Trade Data

US Trade Balance (August) - 14:30 CET

The US trade deficit continues to influence dollar strength and policy discussions around tariffs. August data will show whether import demand remains resilient despite higher prices from trade policy measures. A widening deficit could weaken the dollar, whilst improvement may support USD positioning ahead of the FOMC minutes.

UK Halifax House Price Index (September)

UK property market data offers insights into consumer confidence and household wealth. Following the Bank of England's cautious rate stance, housing trends signal credit conditions and spending capacity.

Additional Tuesday data:

• Canada Trade Balance (August)

• Germany Factory Orders (August)

• France Trade Balance (August)

• Japan Household Spending (August)

• Philippines Inflation (September)

Wednesday, 8 October: FOMC Minutes & RBNZ Rate Decision

FOMC Meeting Minutes (September Meeting) - 20:00 CET 

Why this is the week's most important event: The Federal Reserve FOMC minutes will reveal detailed discussions behind September's first rate cut of 2025. With policymakers deeply split—nine forecasting two more cuts, seven expecting no cuts or increases, and one anticipating more aggressive easing—the minutes will clarify the Fed's reaction function to evolving economic data.

Key details to watch:

1. Employment concerns: How worried are policymakers about weakening job growth?

2. Inflation persistence: Views on tariff-driven price pressures versus temporary factors

3. Dissenting opinions: Arguments from hawks expecting no further cuts

4. Forward guidance language: Conditional phrasing around future policy moves

5. Economic growth assessment: Updated views on recession risks

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision - 03:00 CET [CENTRAL BANK DECISION]

New Zealand's Reserve Bank announces its monetary policy decision under new Governor Anna Breman's leadership. The RBNZ cut rates to 3.0% previously, responding to double-dip recession risks after Q2 GDP contracted year-on-year. Markets expect further easing, but the magnitude and forward guidance will drive NZD volatility.

Bank of Thailand Rate Decision - Time TBC

Thailand's central bank balances inflation management against growth support amid global headwinds.

Wednesday's other key releases:

• Germany Industrial Production (August)

• Sweden Inflation (September, preliminary)

• Japan Current Account (August)

• Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)

• Taiwan Inflation (September)

Thursday, 9 October: Jerome Powell Speech & German Trade

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speech - Time TBC 

Why Powell's remarks matter: Following Wednesday's FOMC minutes, Jerome Powell's speech offers real-time interpretation and potential clarification of policy stance. Powell has previously cautioned against automatic rate cut expectations, emphasising data dependency. His commentary on employment trends, inflation persistence, and trade policy impacts will drive immediate market reactions.

Questions markets want answered:

• Is the Fed's easing cycle front-loaded or gradual?

• How does the Fed view tariff-related inflation—temporary or structural?

• What labour market metrics trigger further cuts?

• Are financial conditions appropriate for current economic state?

US Initial Jobless Claims - 14:30 CET

Weekly unemployment claims provide the freshest labour market data, crucial given Fed concerns about weakening employment. Rising claims support dovish policy expectations.

Germany Trade Balance (August)

Export data from Europe's manufacturing powerhouse signals global demand strength and eurozone external balances.

Thursday's additional releases:

• Brazil Inflation (September)

• Mexico Inflation (September)

• US Wholesale Inventories (August)

• UK RICS House Price Balance (September)

• Turkey Industrial Production (August)

• Philippines BSP Interest Rate Decision

• Taiwan Trade (September)

Friday, 10 October: UK Jobs Data & Canada Employment

UK KPMG/REC Report on Jobs (September) - 00:01 CET

The UK labour market faces scrutiny following September PMI data showing steep job losses and economic deceleration. The recruitment industry survey provides forward-looking insights into hiring intentions and wage pressures—critical inputs for Bank of England policy.

Canada Employment Report (September) - 14:30 CET

Canadian jobs data influences Bank of Canada policy expectations and USD/CAD positioning. Employment growth and wage trends signal domestic demand strength.

US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October, preliminary) - 16:00 CET

Consumer confidence reflects household spending intentions and inflation expectations, key forward indicators for economic momentum.

Friday's other releases:

• Mexico Industrial Production (August)

• Norway Inflation (September)

• Sweden GDP (August)

• Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

• Italy Industrial Production (August)

• Malaysia Industrial Production (August)

Economic Calendar: Complete Weekly Schedule

Monday 6 October:

• Eurozone Retail Sales (Aug) - 11:00 CET

• Construction PMI - France, Germany, Italy, UK

Tuesday 7 October:

• US Trade Balance (Aug) - 14:30 CET

• UK Halifax House Prices (Sep)

Wednesday 8 October:

• FOMC Minutes (Sep meeting) - 20:00 CET [HIGH IMPACT]

• RBNZ Rate Decision - 03:00 CET [CENTRAL BANK]

• Germany Industrial Production (Aug)

Thursday 9 October:

• Jerome Powell Speech - Time TBC [HIGH IMPACT]

• US Initial Jobless Claims - 14:30 CET

• Germany Trade (Aug)

Friday 10 October:

• UK KPMG/REC Jobs Report (Sep) - 00:01 CET

• Canada Employment (Sep) - 14:30 CET

• US Consumer Sentiment (Oct prelim) - 16:00 CET

Earnings for the Week of 6 October 2025

Besides the above, traders may want to keep track of the following earnings reports

Monday, 6 October

• Constellation Brands

Thursday, 9 October

• Pepsico

• Delta Air Lines

• Levi Strauss

• Tilray Brands 

Conclusion

The week ahead delivers critical monetary policy insights that will shape trading strategies into year-end. The FOMC minutes and Powell speech represent the week's highest-impact events, with potential to reset market expectations for the Fed rate decision path. European data tests the sustainability of the eurozone's fragile recovery, whilst Asia-Pacific central bank decisions amid growth concerns will drive regional currency movements.

Key takeaways for traders:

• Wednesday-Thursday Fed events dominate risk sentiment

• Volatility likely spikes around Powell remarks

• Eurozone and UK data provide regional potential trading opportunities

• Inflation reports influence emerging market currencies

• Reduced liquidity due to China market closures

Traders may want to implement appropriate risk management, reduce leverage around high-impact announcements, and stay alert for sudden market moves as algorithms react to Fed communication.

*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice.