Oil and Gold Price Update: US Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook

6 November 2025: Global commodity markets moved cautiously on Wednesday as crude oil prices edged higher amid easing supply concerns, whilst gold held firm on a softer US dollar and heightened investor uncertainty. At the same time, US private-sector employment data surprised to the upside, complicating expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

TL;DR

• Brent crude rose to $63.69/barrel; WTI reached $59.78/barrel

• Gold held at $3,985.59/oz as the US dollar weakened 0.2%

• US private payrolls added 42,000 jobs, beating the 30,000 forecast

• Fed December rate cut probability dropped to 63% from over 90%

• J.P. Morgan revised its 2025 oil demand forecast down to 850,000 barrels/day

• Ongoing US government shutdown complicates economic data interpretation

• Capital Economics forecasts oil at $60/barrel by the end of 2025, $50/barrel by the end of 2026

Key Market Developments: Oil, Gold, and US Employment

Crude Oil Prices Rise as OPEC+ Pauses Production Increases

Crude oil futures rose slightly after recent declines. Brent crude climbed to about US $63.69 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate reached around US $59.78 per barrel.

The slight uptick follows three straight months of decline, as worries about a supply glut eased, partly due to sanctions on major Russian oil companies and the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries + (OPEC+) decision to pause additional production increases in early 2026. Nevertheless, demand remains weak. One bank (J.P. Morgan) revised its 2025 global oil‑demand growth estimate down to ~850,000 barrels per day, citing sluggish US consumption and lower container shipments.

Analysts at Capital Economics expect ongoing downward pressure on oil prices, forecasting around US$ 60/‑barrel by the end of 2025 and US$ 50/‑barrel by the end of 2026. (Source: Reuters)

Gold Steadies on Softer Dollar, US Shutdown Risks

Spot gold prices edged up ~0.1% to US$3,985.59 per ounce while US gold futures rose similarly. The upward bias was supported by a roughly 0.2% decline in the US dollar from a four‑month high, making gold more attractive to non‑dollar holders. Investor concern remains elevated due to the ongoing US government shutdown (the longest in history), which is clouding the data flow and outlook.

Meanwhile, an unexpectedly positive private‑sector jobs update (see below) has reduced market expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed to about 63% from over 90%.

US Jobs Report: Private Payrolls Beat Expectations with 42,000 Additions

According to the ADP Research Institute private‑sector payrolls report, US employers added around 42,000 jobs in October, beating forecasts of ~30,000 and reversing September’s loss of ~29,000.

However, economists remained cautious, noting that hiring remains modest relative to earlier in the year and that structural weakness persists in parts of the labour market.

The strength in the labour market is complicating the Fed’s decision-making: while employment has been a key reason for potential easing, the better-than-expected result tightens the threshold for further cuts.

Market Impact: How US Jobs Data Affects Fed Policy and Commodities

Global equities and sector rotation

Markets globally experienced pressure, notably in technology and AI‑related sectors: Asian chipmakers and global tech stocks sold off amid concerns of an overvalued AI bubble and profit‑taking.

Equity markets are therefore navigating a mix of modest economic data, weak commodity demand, and uncertain monetary‑policy direction.

US Government Shutdown Impact

The ongoing US government shutdown means many key macroeconomic indicators-including official non-farm payroll data and JOLTS (Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey) job openings-are delayed or suspended, complicating both policy formulation and market interpretation.

Commodity Supply-Demand Dynamics

With demand weak across major commodity sectors, supply-side adjustments are gaining increased importance in oil markets. OPEC+ output restraint, combined with Western sanctions on Russian energy exports, is temporarily supporting crude oil prices despite anaemic consumption growth.

In the precious metals space, gold's role as a hedge amid currency volatility and political risk uncertainty remains evident, even as interest-rate expectations evolve. The metal continues to benefit from its safe-haven status during periods of fiscal and monetary policy ambiguity.

Services Sector Resilience

The modest rebound in services-sector activity, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing PMI rising to 52.4 in October from 51.8 in September, demonstrates underlying economic resilience. However, this does not yet signal a broad-based labour market turnaround, particularly in goods-producing sectors.

Conclusion

Today’s market snapshot highlights the complexity of the current environment: commodities such as oil are finding tentative support amid supply concerns, yet demand remains under pressure. Gold is holding up as a safe-haven asset, benefiting from a weaker dollar and policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, the US labour market’s mild rebound complicates the Fed’s path forward, muddying the outlook for further rate cuts. With both data flows and policy signals less clear, traders and investors may focus more on forward guidance and supply‑demand signals rather than traditional macro indicators.

*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice.