Market Updates: What to Expect on the Week of June 17, 2024

The week of June 17, 2024, heralds a plethora of pivotal economic and financial events, ranging from central bank decisions to retail sales updates, PMI, and more.

These reports are poised to provide traders, analysts, and consumers alike with vital insights into the current global economic landscape, especially as we reach the midpoint of 2024. 

Let's take a closer look at this week’s main economic events:

Central Banks’ Meetings & Fed Speakers

This week’s central banks’ meetings may be important to keep in mind, especially given the prowess these financial institutions have on the economy. 

Three of the world’s most powerful central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) are scheduled to release their rate decisions in the upcoming days. 

RBA 

The RBA, Australia’s central bank, will release its decision on Tuesday, June 18, and is largely expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.35%, marking a higher-for-longer approach. If the RBA adheres to the predictions, Australia’s interest rates will hit a 12-year peak for the 5th time in a row.

BoE

The BoE, England’s central bank, is expected to meet on Thursday, June 20, amidst economic uncertainty stemming from various factors including the surprise General Election. Additionally, economic data from the UK seems to be inducing the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming decision. On the one hand, recent reports have shown that headline inflation has cooled in April. On the other hand, the country’s unemployment rose in the three months leading to April, marking the highest rate in about three years. 

While the actual results of the meeting are yet to be determined, many market watchers believe that this central bank will keep rates unchanged at 5.25% (for the seventh time in a row). 

SNB

The SNB, Switzerland’s central bank, is also scheduled to meet on Thursday, June 20. Given the fact that the SNB surprisingly cut rates in its March meeting, many seem to believe that the central bank will also cut rates this time as well by 25bps. However, only time will show which route will be taken.

Fed Speeches

Besides the aforementioned meetings, traders and consumers may want to keep track of the upcoming Fed speeches this week from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Kansas City Fed President Alberto Musalem.

Seeing whether any hawkish or dovish comments emerge can be helpful to understanding the Fed’s possible monetary policy trajectory as we draw closer to a new month.

US Retail Sales

Tuesday, June 18, could mark an important day for those interested in the US market as May’s retail data is set to be released. 

The world’s largest economy’s retail reading is expected to show an increase of 0.3% in May’s retail sales (compared to the prior month). If the expectations come to fruition, it would mark a notable “rebound” in the country’s retail sector. 

Nonetheless, it may be worth noting that according to some experts from Wells Fargo consumption “is headed for a more modest pace of growth in the second half of the year.” These economists explain that “the personal saving rate has turned lower, consumer credit growth has slowed as delinquencies have increased, and growth in real disposable income has faded amid a moderating labour market.”

All of these economic headwinds may have contributed to a weaker discretionary spending and can, according to them, affect retail sales in the months to come. (Source: Yahoo Finance)

PMI Releases 

This week’s PMI reports cover a wide range of economies. Here are the main ones:

• Australia: AU Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash and Judo Bank Services PMI Flash on Thursday, June 20. 

• Japan: Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash and Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash on Friday, June 21. 

• Eurozone: HCOB Composite PMI Flash, HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash, HCOB Services PMI Flash on Friday, June 21. 

• UK: S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash. S&P Global Services PMI Flash on Friday, June 21.

• USA: S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, S&P Global Services PMI Flash on Friday, June 21.

What will the data reveal about the health of the global economy, in general, and the services and manufacturing sectors, in particular?

More Releases

Other releases to keep track of include the following:

Tuesday, June 18

• Earnings from Lennar (LEN) 

• US Advance Retail Sales

• US Business Inventories

• US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation

Wednesday, June 19

• Market Closes for Juneteenth National Independence Day Holiday

• US Housing Market Index

Thursday, June 20

• Earnings reports from Accenture (ACN) and Kroger (KR)

• US Housing Starts 

• US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, June 21

• Earnings from CarMax (KMX) and Factset (FDS)

• US Existing Home Sales

Conclusion

Despite having a shorter trading week due to Juneteenth, the markets are poised for an eventful week as a plethora of financial and economic releases are set to take place, providing important information about the state of the global economies as we head into a new half of the year.