Gold, Apple & Natural Gas Drive Markets Higher

Wall Street soared on Monday, 20 October, with the S&P 500 (+1.07%) and Nasdaq (+1.37%) at striking distance of record highs, and the Dow Jones (+1.12%) 516 points higher. Apple (AAPL) led the rally after Loop Capital upgraded the stock to a buy rating as iPhone 17 sales data in China and the US outperformed, boosting the price up by 3.9%.

Markets also gained due to US-China trade war de-escalation, a possible resolution to the US government shutdown, and strong Q3 earnings so far, while pricing in two more interest rate cuts this year. As a result, gold (XAU) also extended to new record highs, but traders secured profits early Tuesday. All the while, natural gas (NG) jumped around 13% to $3.399 MMBtu on colder weather forecasts and LNG demand.

Let’s dive into the details:

TL;DR

• Apple stock soared 3.9% to a record high as iPhone 17 sales outpaced iPhone 16 in both the US and China.

• The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all rallied, with the former two just shy of all-time highs.

• Gold extended its record run as investors bet on Fed rate cuts, while trade and fiscal issues remain unresolved.

• Natural gas futures surged nearly 13% on colder weather forecasts and increased LNG demand.

• Markets were driven by US-China trade progress, hopes for ending the US shutdown, and optimism for strong Q3 earnings.

Apple iPhone 17 Sales Drive Tech Rally

Tech giant Apple recorded its first all-time high in 2025 on Monday near the $4 trillion market cap mark, driven by new iPhone 17 sales data. Counterpoint research indicated that the company’s sales in China and the US outpaced iPhone 16 sales by a margin of 14% in the first 10 days since its launch. Sales of iPhone Air in China, in particular, sold out in just a few minutes, having some analysts assigning it an equal weight to an upgraded rating. 

Following the data publication, Loop Capital upgraded Apple to buy from hold, expecting increasing demand through 2027 and raising its price target substantially to $315 from $226. Despite the positive start in both the US and China, some of Apple’s own engineers expressed concerns over the weekend about the new version of Siri, with analysts now expecting the company to report its earnings on 30 October to affirm expectations.

Apple still lags behind other Magnificent Seven constituents, like Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Alphabet (GOOG), which have yet to report. Tesla (TSLA) will report this week, alongside big tech names Netflix (NFLX) and Intel (INTC), which may confirm a turning point in history for a Wall Street, known for its disappointing performance during the October months. Meanwhile, markets are coming off a particularly rough week despite the Fed being expected to cut rates. (Source: CNBC)

Gold Reclaims Record Peak Amid Cut Expectations

Gold rebounded from last week’s drop as markets expect the Fed to cut rates both next week and in December. The precious metal soared to reach a new record price just as tensions between the US and China on the trade front eased. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is poised to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Malaysia, which is seen as a market positive in itself.

Meanwhile, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett also stated on Monday that the US shutdown is most likely going to end this week. However, gold still rose to new records as the shutdown runs now in its 21st day on Tuesday, with the only piece of US economic data available to the markets being Friday’s CPI release. This means that markets remain concerned about fiscal and tariff uncertainty, as no resolution appears in sight.

So gold’s rally on Monday is seen more like a ‘buy the dip’ event due to “extreme FOMO” at a time when the US economy is firing on all pistons and investors are “more complacent” since the Fed pivoted in August. Western demand for the SPDR Gold (GLD) ETF reached nearly 33.7 million shares on October 9, the highest level since April, due to "political and economic concerns", with expectations that gold could reach $4,500 per ounce in the coming weeks. But while gold is up over 65% this year, commodity peer natural gas witnessed a large portion of such performance in a single trading session.

Natural Gas Surges 11% on Weather Forecasts

Natural gas surged ~13% on Monday, the largest single-day increase in months, after Atmospheric G2 increased their US forecast for 25 October - 3 November. Higher hitting demand and LNG flows also contributed to the price rise, including speculative buying following a 2-week low last week that saw traders covering shorts. LSEG (LSEG-L) increased its average gas demand since last Friday to 105.5 bcfd from 101.5 bcfd next week. 

Yet, gas stocks are sitting 4% above average for October. The EIA also raised its 2025 gas production forecast to 107.114 bcf/day from 106.6 bcf/day in September, while Baker Hughes last week reported that US rigs rose to 121 from 120 in the week ending 17 October and from 94 last September. These factors are bearish for natural gas. However, output to Mexico increased to a record level in May, and European storage levels remain at 83% capacity instead of 92% last year, according to the EIA. Electricity output also rose 5.1% year-on-year last Thursday, according to the Edison Electric Institute, which is positive for gas prices, given that around 40% of US homes generated gas-fired power.

Closing Words

The convergence of big tech optimism, easing geopolitical tensions, and supportive monetary policy has given markets a boost at the start of the week. With Apple leading the charge and commodities defying seasonal slumps, investors bought the dip.

However, as the week unfolds, all eyes remain on key tech earnings, trade developments between the US and China and CPI-led signals for monetary policy. For traders and investors, now is the time to stay informed and prepared for opportunities and risks in volatile markets.

*Past performance does not indicate future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice