CPI February 2026 Forecast - EU CPI Inflation Previews: Spain CPI, Germany CPI & France CPI

This Friday (27 February 2026) is shaping up to be a key inflation test for the Eurozone, with Spain, France, and Germany all releasing fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Together, these reports could influence expectations around the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next rate decision.

Let’s dive into the expectations:

TL;DR

• Spain’s inflation is expected to hold around 2.3%, with core inflation stuck near 2.6%, signalling persistent service and wage pressures.

• France remains the softest economy inflation-wise, with headline CPI projected at just 0.2-0.3% due to continued energy weakness.

• Germany is forecast at around 2.1-2.2%, with core near 2.4%, keeping underlying inflation relatively firm.

• Core inflation could drive market reaction, and Germany’s print may shape expectations for the European Central Bank’s next rate move.

Spain CPI

Recent Data (January 2026)

Spain’s final January CPI YoY fell to 2.3%, down from 2.9% in December and slightly below the preliminary 2.4% estimate. Core CPI held steady at 2.6%, reflecting persistent services and wage pressures. HICP declined to 2.4% from 3.0%, largely due to falling energy costs.

The country is clearly experiencing headline disinflation, but the stability in core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures remain firm.

February 2026 Expectations

The preliminary February CPI YoY is forecast at approximately 2.3%, matching January’s reading. Core inflation is expected to remain close to 2.6%.

For markets, this implies that while Spain is no longer an inflation outlier, it is also not cooling fast enough to justify aggressive ECB rate cuts.

France CPI

Recent Data (January 2026)

France’s January inflation slowed sharply, with headline CPI at just 0.3% YoY, down from 0.8% in December and below expectations. On a monthly basis, prices declined by 0.3%, driven by seasonal discounts and a steep 7.8% annual drop in energy prices. Core inflation eased to 0.7%, while food prices rose 1.9% and services slowed to 1.8%.

France currently shows the weakest inflation dynamics among the three major economies, with energy deflation playing a dominant role. (Source: Trading Economics)

February 2026 Expectations

Analysts expect February’s preliminary CPI to come in between 0.2% and 0.3% YoY. First-quarter average inflation is projected near 0.9%, and full-year 2026 estimates stand around 1.3%, rising toward 1.8% in 2027.

Business surveys indicate that medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored around 2%, suggesting no immediate risk of deflation but clear disinflation momentum.

France strengthens the dovish case for ECB easing, but on its own, it is unlikely to dictate policy. 

Germany CPI

Latest Data (January 2026)

Germany’s HICP inflation rate rose slightly to 2.1% YoY in January from 2.0% in December. The CPI index rose to 122.80, a modest 0.08% monthly increase. While energy prices declined, industrial goods and services continued to rise, keeping core inflation near 2.4%.

Germany remains the most influential economy in the Eurozone, and its inflation trajectory carries significant weight for policy decisions.

February 2026 Expectations 

Forecasts for February’s preliminary CPI range between 2.1% and 2.2% YoY, with core inflation expected around 2.4%. Wage growth and services inflation continue to support underlying price pressures, and the Bundesbank projects a 2026 average near 2.2%.

Because of Germany’s economic size, any upside or downside surprise here is likely to have the strongest market impact.

ECB Policy Context

The European Central Bank remains cautious. Although headline inflation in parts of the bloc is approaching the 2% target, sticky core inflation, particularly in Germany and Spain, indicates that the disinflation process is not yet complete.

Friday’s data will help determine whether the ECB maintains its gradual easing bias or faces pressure to adjust rate-cut expectations.

Conclusion 

Friday’s inflation releases are less about whether headline numbers are falling and more about whether core inflation is proving persistent. France is nearing very low inflation levels, Spain shows stable but sticky underlying pressures, and Germany remains firm around the ECB’s target.

If Germany surprises to the upside, bond yields and the euro could strengthen as markets reassess the pace of easing. If all three economies print softer-than-expected numbers, rate-cut expectations may accelerate, and yields could decline.

Ultimately, Germany’s print will likely set the tone for Eurozone rate expectations heading into the second quarter of 2026.

*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above is for marketing and general informational purposes only, and are only projections and should not be taken as investment research, investment advice or a personal recommendation.