NFP November 2025 Report Preview: Nonfarm Payrolls (16 December)

Markets and economists are bracing for one of the year's most closely watched economic releases: the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, scheduled for Tuesday, 16 December 2025 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This release carries added significance as it will include both October and November payroll data after delays caused by the US federal government shutdown earlier in the autumn.

Let’s dive into the details:

TL;DR

• US Nonfarm Payrolls report releases  16 December 2025, combining October and November data after government shutdown delays

• Some economists forecast modest job gains of ~50,000 for November, reflecting continued labour market moderation

• Unemployment rate expected to hold near mid-4% range; October household survey data will not be reported

• Federal Reserve policy direction hinges on this data, with recent rate cuts reflecting cooling labour trends

Why Are Economists Forecasting Modest Job Growth in November?

Economists forecast that payroll additions will show moderate growth rather than robust hiring. Preliminary estimates suggest net job gains in the November report could be around ~50,000, reflecting continued labour market moderation.

Other models incorporating both months point to mixed signals for October and November, with some forecasts showing modest job creation for each month. This compares with earlier months like September, where employment expanded by roughly 119,000, but the pace of hiring has slowed from mid-year levels. Still, only time will tell what lies ahead. (Source: Investing.com)

What Should Traders Watch in the Unemployment and Earnings Data?

The unemployment rate is expected to remain near recent levels (around the mid-4% range), though October's household survey was not collected and will not be reported.

Average hourly earnings, a key inflation indicator, may show modest gains, adding to the data's relevance for monetary policy watchers and those trading currency pairs potentially sensitive to Fed decisions.

What Is the Current State of the US Labour Market?

The US labour market has been characterised by slowing momentum:

• Weekly jobless claims have recently jumped, signalling softer underlying conditions

• Private payroll data, such as ADP's estimate, showed employment contraction in November, defying earlier expectations of growth

• Despite a rise in job openings, actual hiring has stagnated in some sectors, creating a "low-hire, low-fire" backdrop

Federal Reserve policymakers have acknowledged ongoing uncertainty in labour data, compounding the importance of this combined release.

How Will the 16 December NFP Report Influence Federal Reserve Policy?

The Federal Reserve has recently cut interest rates in response to cooling labour and inflation trends, but continues a data-dependent stance going into 2026. Labour market readings that show continued weakness could reinforce expectations for further easing, whereas stronger figures might give policymakers reason to pause.

Markets are currently pricing in potential rate adjustments based on employment strength, making this NFP release critical for Fed watchers and traders positioning across indices and fixed-income markets.

What Market Volatility Should Traders Anticipate on 16 December NFP News?

While past performance does not guarantee future results, historically, markets such as forex, equities, and yield have experienced volatility in response to NFP news data.

Given the unique nature of this report, with combined months and data noise resulting from delayed surveys, traders and investors may want to prepare for potential volatility and mixed signals.

Why Does This NFP November 2025 & NFP October 2025 Report Carry Extra Significance?

This release is unusual because it combines data from two months following the federal government shutdown. The delayed collection creates uncertainty around data quality and comparability, whilst the double-month format may obscure month-to-month trends that traders typically rely on for precision timing.

Additionally, the absence of October's household survey data (which includes the unemployment rate calculation) means analysts will have incomplete information for assessing labour market slack during that period.

Conclusion

The NFP 16 December 2025 report represents a pivotal moment for markets and monetary policy. With economists forecasting modest job growth of ~50,000 for November, continued unemployment stability near 4%, and the Federal Reserve maintaining a data-dependent approach, this release could significantly influence rate expectations and asset prices across global markets.

The combined October-November format and delayed data collection add layers of complexity, suggesting traders should approach the release with caution and prepare for potential volatility across currency, equity, and bond markets.

*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice.