Fed Rate Cut & BoE Decision: Economic Calendar Sept 15-20

As markets enter a pivotal week, central bank decisions across major economies promise to shape trading sentiment, while diplomatic developments could influence currency and equity movements. Here's what traders should watch for during 15-20 September 2025.

TL;DR

• Federal Reserve widely expected to deliver first rate cut of 2025 on Wednesday

• Bank of England policy decision on Thursday, with markets split on potential rate hold

• Trump's UK state visit could spark major tech investment announcements from Nvidia and OpenAI

• UK inflation data on Wednesday ahead of the BoE meeting

• Multiple central bank decisions from Japan, Canada also scheduled

• US retail sales and earnings from major corporations round out busy calendar

Daily Economic Calendar Breakdown

Monday, 15 September

• EU Trade Data: European trade balance figures may provide early-week direction for EUR pairs

• Market Positioning: Traders likely to adjust positions ahead of the Fed decision mid-week

Tuesday, 16 September

• UK Unemployment Data: Labour market strength remains crucial for Bank of England (BoE) policy outlook

• Trump Begins UK Visit: President departs for second state visit to Britain, with business delegation including tech leaders

Wednesday, 17 September

• US President Donald Trump at Windsor Castle: Royal ceremonies with King Charles, potential for unexpected market-moving comments

• Tech Investment Focus: Nvidia and OpenAI expected to announce major UK infrastructure commitments

Thursday, 18 September

• Federal Reserve Decision: 25bp rate cut widely anticipated, focus shifts to future policy trajectory

• Bank of England Policy: BoE expected to hold rates at 4.0% despite recent inflation pressures 

• Trump-Starmer Bilateral Meetings: Trade discussions at Chequers could influence GBP/USD dynamics

Friday, 19 September

• UK Retail Sales: Consumer spending data will close out the week's UK economic releases

Currency & Market Trading Outlook

United States

The Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure to begin its easing cycle, with economic data showing signs of cooling labour market conditions. Chair Jerome Powell must navigate political tensions while maintaining central bank independence, particularly following recent disputes over board member appointments.

• USD Impact: A 25bp cut is largely priced in, but forward guidance will be crucial for dollar direction. Any dovish surprise could weaken USD across major pairs.

United Kingdom

The BoE confronts a complex backdrop of elevated inflation running at 3.6% - well above the 2% target - yet growing economic headwinds. The recent 25bp cut to 4.0% in August was controversial, with markets divided on the September decision.

GBP Considerations: Sterling's performance will depend heavily on inflation data and BoE commentary. Trump's visit adds a geopolitical dimension, with potential trade agreements supporting the medium-term GBP outlook.

European Union

While the European Central Bank (ECB) isn't meeting this week, EU inflation and trade data will provide insights into regional economic momentum ahead of October's policy decision.

Policy Implications for Traders

Interest Rate Differentials

The Fed's expected rate cut could narrow USD yield advantages, potentially influencing emerging market currencies and commodities. The BoE's decision will be crucial for maintaining GBP competitiveness.

Technology Sector Focus

Major investment commitments from Nvidia and OpenAI during Trump's UK visit could boost technology equities and strengthen the UK's position in the global AI race. These announcements may particularly impact:

• Semiconductor stocks

• Data centre operators

• UK technology indices

Currency Volatility

Expect heightened volatility in major currency pairs, particularly:

• GBP/USD: Dual central bank decisions and diplomatic developments

• USD/ILS: Fed policy impact on emerging market flows

• EUR/GBP: Relative policy stance differences

Trading Considerations

Markets appear positioned for Fed easing, but the key question remains the pace of future cuts. Bank of England policy divergence could create opportunities in cross-currency trades. Geopolitical developments during Trump's visit may generate headline risk for both USD and GBP.

Economic data releases provide multiple catalysts for intraday volatility, with particular attention on how markets interpret central bank communications about future policy paths.

More Data to Keep in Mind

Besides the above, traders and investors may want to keep tabs on the following releases:

Earnings

• Tuesday, 16 September: Nebius Group

• Wednesday, 17 September: General Mills

• Thursday, 18 September: FedEx, Lennar, Darden Restaurants, FactSet

(Source: Nasdaq)

CPI

• Monday, 15 September: Poland and Saudi Arabia 

• Tuesday, 16 September: Italy and Canada 

• Wednesday, 17 September: Eurozone, South Africa, UK 

• Thursday, 18 September: Japan 

Conclusion

This week represents a critical juncture for global monetary policy, with major central banks facing difficult decisions amid mixed economic signals. While markets have largely priced in Fed easing, combining policy decisions, diplomatic developments, and corporate announcements creates multiple avenues for market-moving surprises.

Traders should prepare for increased volatility and observe any deviation from consensus expectations, particularly in central bank forward guidance, which could reshape rate cut expectations for the remainder of 2025.

*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice.