June Kicks Off with Economic Releases & Events

With the US debt ceiling drama seemingly out of the picture until 2025, traders and investors alike may be looking for new economic data and possible events that can shift the trajectory of the markets. Accordingly, this week events from big tech conferences to GDP, CPI, and interest rate decisions are expected to take place in some of the world’s biggest economies. Here’s what you should expect from this week ahead:

Apple’s WWDC 2023 Conference 

After a few challenging months for the tech industry, as inflation and higher interest rates put some strain on the biggest tech companies, traders may want to keep an eye out for any events that could change the outlook for the tech industry going forward like Apple’s upcoming WWDC conference. 

The WWDC, which is the abbreviation for the Worldwide Developers Conference, is an event held by Apple (AAPL) and dedicated to its third-party software developers. As such, developers that work on creating Apple’s apps get to participate in workshops or sessions that reveal the latest developments in Apple’s hardware and software. The event begins today, Monday, June 5th, and will last for a week.

What may be interesting to traders, however, is the fact that during this conference, Apple also announces software plans and new products to the world. Among the anticipated releases and updates are iOS 17, iPadOS 17, macOS 14, WatchOS10, tvOS 17, and HomePod software version 17. Nevertheless, whether or not these predictions will hold true will only be revealed throughout this event. 

But what’s among the most anticipated possible releases is Apple’s Reality Pro headset which has been anticipated to be released for quite some time now. The AR/VR headset is expected to be pricey and is rumored to look like ski goggles with 8k displays. If the company indeed releases the headset, then it might play a detrimental role in Apple’s stock prices.

Since the beginning of the year, the iPhone maker has grown by 44.6% despite economic hurdles and big tech layoffs. It might be interesting to see how today’s event and the revelations may affect Apple’s stock in the long run.

RBA Rate Decisions: Will the Central Bank be Hawkish or Dovish?

On Tuesday, June 6th, Australia’s central bank, the RBA, is expected to release its interest rate decision.  Given the inflationary pressures and the overarching economic uncertainty, it seems that analysts are torn as to whether the Australian central bank will adopt a hawkish or dovish stance this time around

On the one hand, some may be predicting a hawkish rate hike in light of the fact that on Friday, June 2nd, the Fair Work Commission announced that it would lift the minimum wage by about 5.75%. This is because the wage hikes could raise inflation. As a result, this caused many to believe that the RBA will raise its cash rate to 4.1% on Tuesday. In addition, some also believe that the wage raises entail further rate hikes, and as such, expect the RBA to hike rates twice by August to land at 4.35%. 

On the other hand, others believe that the bank will maintain a stable cash rate of 3.85% especially following the last meeting in May, during which the bank hiked interest rates by 25 basis points and caused borrowing costs to reach their highest level since April 2012. According to a Reuters economists poll, the central bank will likely keep interest rates the same at 3.58% despite the toll inflation seems to be taking on Australia’s economy. (Source:Reuters)

As analysts seem to waver back and forth between possible hawkishness or dovishness, one analyst revealed that “there is too much uncertainty,” surrounding the decision. He added that “the outlook for household spending is very worrying, especially with inbuilt lags associated with this unique cycle. An extended pause to allow full evaluation of these lags is the best policy.” 

Ahead of the RBA meeting, the Australian dollar may have recovered from some of last week’s losses and might shift in the near future based on tomorrow’s decision. Consequently, given the uncertainty, it might be worth keeping in mind tomorrow’s rate decision to see what path the central bank will take and how it might affect Australia’s economy, in general, and the markets in particular. 

Japan GDP: How Is the World’s Third-Largest Economy Faring?

Other important economic releases this week include Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures which are expected to be released on Wednesday, June 7th.

Japan’s Q1 GDP is expected to show that the world’s third-largest economy is growing. The projections suggest that GDP may have grown by 1.9% at an annualized rate which is higher than the preliminary reading of 1.6%. Some analysts believe that Japan’s manufacturing investments are rapidly growing and that “While we can't characterize January-March as the exit period from stagnation, the data raises hope for the fiscal year 2023.” 

Moreover, economists believe that Japan's current account balance remained positive in April, primarily due to a reduced deficit in the services sector, as a growing number of tourists returned to the country.  However, the validity of these optimistic projections remains to be seen.

In addition to the aforementioned economic data,  Eurozone GDP and China CPI are expected to be released this week on Thursday, June 8th, and Friday, June 9th, and might also provide valuable insights into the state of the global economy. 

Overall, this week holds significant significance for the markets as it could impact the trajectory of the economy and offer valuable indications of what can be anticipated in the upcoming months.