Markets Rally as U.S. Shutdown Ends; Gold Surges, Oil Falls on OPEC Outlook
Thursday 13 November 2025
Week Ahead: Key Economic Events for 22-26 September 2025
The financial markets are poised for a pivotal week as traders and investors await crucial economic data releases that could shape monetary policy decisions and market sentiment for the remainder of 2025. This week's economic calendar features an array of significant events, from flash PMI surveys across major economies to the highly anticipated US Core PCE inflation data - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
TL;DR
Key highlights for the week of 22-26 September 2025:
Flash PMI data from major economies (Tuesday) will provide the first insights into September economic activity
US Core PCE inflation data (Friday) could influence the Federal Reserve policy trajectory
Swiss National Bank interest rate decision (Thursday) may impact CHF currency pairs
Mexico's Banxico rate decision (Friday) adds to emerging market focus
German business confidence indicators throughout the week
Monday 22 September: Market Foundation
The week commences with Canada's Producer Price Index data for August, alongside the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which provides a comprehensive gauge of US economic activity (S&P Global Market Intelligence, 2025). European markets will focus on the Eurozone's flash Consumer Confidence reading for September, which has shown signs of stabilisation following earlier volatility.
Trading considerations: Canadian Dollar pairs may experience volatility following PPI data, particularly given recent commodity price movements.
Tuesday 23 September: Global PMI Focus
Tuesday represents the week's most significant data release with flash PMI surveys across major economies. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence (2025), these preliminary readings will provide the first major snapshots of September economic trends globally.
Recent August PMI data showed encouraging signs, with the Global Manufacturing PMI rising from 49.7 in July to 50.9 in August, crossing the crucial 50.0 expansion threshold. The US Manufacturing PMI reached 53.0 in August, marking the strongest improvement in operating conditions since May 2022.
Key releases include:
Australia, India, UK, Germany, France, Eurozone, and US PMI data
US Current Account and Existing Home Sales
Market participants will scrutinise these figures for early indications of whether the manufacturing recovery can be sustained, particularly given concerns about trade-related uncertainties affecting global supply chains.
Trading focus: Stock indices may see increased volatility, with manufacturing-heavy markets like Germany 40 particularly sensitive to PMI outcomes.
Wednesday 24 September: Regional Developments
Mid-week attention turns to Japan's flash PMI data and Germany's influential Ifo Business Climate index. The German data carries particular significance given that the Eurozone's largest economy has shown signs of stabilisation following a challenging period.
Additional releases:
US New Home Sales for August
Australia's Monthly CPI Indicator
Taiwan Industrial Production data
Thursday 25 September: Central Bank and Growth Data
Thursday presents a packed calendar with the Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision taking centre stage. The SNB's monetary policy stance has significant implications for Swiss Franc trading and European financial stability.
The day also features crucial US economic data, including the final Q2 GDP reading and durable goods orders. According to the Federal Reserve's recent communications, policymakers remain focused on labour market conditions and inflationary pressures when considering future rate adjustments (Federal Reserve, 2025).
Key releases:
Swiss National Bank rate decision
US GDP (Q2, final) and Durable Goods Orders
German consumer confidence
Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting minutes
Friday 26 September: Inflation and Policy Implications
The week culminates with perhaps its most crucial release: the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data. This represents the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and could significantly influence expectations for future monetary policy decisions.
Recent inflation data has presented a mixed picture. While headline consumer price inflation increased from 2.7% to 2.9% in August, wholesale prices showed an unexpected 0.1% decline (S&P Global Market Intelligence, 2025). Core PCE inflation projections have been revised lower for 2025 and 2026, with expectations of 2.8% versus 3.4% previously projected (New York Fed, 2025).
Additional Friday releases:
Mexico's Banxico interest rate decision
Canadian GDP preliminary data
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final)
Market impact: US Dollar pairs and US equity indices could see significant movement depending on inflation outcomes. (Source: SPGlobal)
Economic Context and Market Implications
The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 has set the stage for increased market sensitivity to inflation data (Federal Reserve, 2025). Policymakers have indicated expectations of approximately two additional rate cuts by year-end, though this remains contingent on economic data developments.
Global manufacturing trends: The recent upturn in global manufacturing PMI data suggests potential stabilisation in industrial activity. However, concerns persist regarding the sustainability of this recovery, particularly given ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties.
Currency market considerations: The Swiss National Bank's decision will be closely watched for any deviation from expected policy paths, with potential ramifications for EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF trading.
Key Earnings Reports
Besides the above, traders and investors may want to keep tabs on this week’s key corporate earnings reports from the following companies:
Tuesday, 23 September
Thursday, 25 September
Conclusion
The week of 22-26 September 2025 presents a critical juncture for global financial markets, with multiple data releases capable of influencing monetary policy expectations and market sentiment. The combination of PMI surveys, inflation data, and central bank decisions creates a complex landscape requiring careful analysis.
Traders should pay particular attention to the US Core PCE data on Friday, as it may provide the clearest indication of the Federal Reserve's likely policy trajectory for the remainder of 2025. Similarly, the comprehensive PMI releases on Tuesday will offer valuable insights into global economic momentum.
The confluence of these events underscores the interconnected nature of modern financial markets and the importance of monitoring multiple economic indicators when making trading decisions.
*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the US Core PCE data important for Fed policy?
The Federal Reserve considers Core PCE its preferred inflation measure because it adjusts for changes in consumer behaviour and provides a more comprehensive view of underlying price pressures across the economy.
How do PMI readings above 50 impact currency trading?
PMI readings above 50 indicate economic expansion, typically supporting the respective currency as it suggests economic strength and potential for higher interest rates.
What makes the Swiss National Bank's decision significant for European markets?
The SNB's decisions affect the Swiss Franc, which serves as a safe-haven currency. Changes in Swiss monetary policy can influence capital flows across European markets and affect EUR/CHF trading dynamics.
How might manufacturing PMI data affect commodity-linked currencies?
Strong manufacturing PMI readings typically increase demand for raw materials, potentially benefiting commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar.
What should traders monitor regarding emerging market central bank decisions?
Mexico's Banxico decision will be watched for alignment with broader regional monetary policy trends and potential impacts on USD/MXN volatility.
