Markets Rally as U.S. Shutdown Ends; Gold Surges, Oil Falls on OPEC Outlook
Thursday 13 November 2025
13-17 October 2025 Economic Calendar: US Shutdown, China Trade, UK GDP & Bank Earnings
Market participants face an unusual challenge this week as a prolonged US federal government shutdown threatens to disrupt the release of critical economic indicators. With inflation data, retail sales figures, and producer price statistics potentially unavailable, traders and investors must look to alternative data sources and international releases to gauge the health of the global economy and anticipate central bank actions.
The week's focus will centre on three key themes: the impact of US tariffs on global trade flows, the trajectory of inflation in major economies, and signs of economic resilience or weakness that could influence interest rate decisions. According to some sources, "US shutdown prompts more data worries as policy clues are sought," highlighting the information vacuum facing market participants.
TL;DR
The week of 13-17 October 2025 brings heightened uncertainty as a US government shutdown threatens key economic data releases, including inflation and retail sales figures.
Traders will focus on industrial production data, Chinese trade statistics, UK GDP, and eurozone industrial output for clues about global growth and central bank policy trajectories.
The lack of crucial US data may increase market volatility as investors navigate the interplay between tariff impacts, monetary policy expectations, and fiscal concerns.
US Data Drought and Federal Reserve Implications
Shutdown Impact on Market Intelligence
The ongoing US government shutdown is expected to impact crucial data releases that typically inform trading decisions and shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. At the time of reporting, consumer price index (CPI) data, producer price index (PPI) figures, and retail sales statistics, usually released by agencies now closed, remain in jeopardy.
Market consensus had expected September consumer prices to rise 0.3% month-on-month following August's 0.4% increase, with core inflation holding steady at 0.3%. Producer prices were anticipated to rebound 0.3% after an unexpected 0.1% decline in August. The absence of this data can create significant uncertainty for traders positioning for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Industrial Production as an Alternative Indicator
With traditional inflation metrics potentially unavailable, Federal Reserve-compiled industrial production data becomes the week's most critical US release. Scheduled for Friday, 17 October, this data will provide insights into manufacturing sector health and the potential impact of US tariffs on domestic production.
S&P Global Market Intelligence notes that weakening price trends "will add to the odds of a further FOMC rate cut, but the case for lower rates will also likely hinge on the activity data.” Additional clues may emerge from regional surveys, including the Empire State Manufacturing Index from New York (Wednesday, 15 October) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Thursday, 16 October).
Housing Market Indicators
Despite the shutdown, housing market data should proceed as scheduled. Building permits and housing starts for September (Friday, 17 October) will reveal whether elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty continue to dampen residential construction activity. The NAHB Housing Market Index for October (Thursday, 16 October) will meanwhile gauge builder sentiment heading into the traditionally slower winter months.
China Trade Data: Gauging Tariff Impact
Export Performance Under Scrutiny
China's September trade figures, scheduled for Monday, 13 October, will provide crucial evidence of how US tariffs are affecting the world's second-largest economy. According to some sources, the data "will be scoured for clues as to the impact of US tariffs, though to also see whether domestic factors such as increased fiscal spending may be offsetting some of the dampening impact of the levies.”
Previous months have shown mixed results, with exporters sometimes front-loading shipments ahead of tariff implementations, creating temporary spikes followed by sharp declines. September's figures will help determine whether trade patterns are normalising or if the impact of levies is intensifying.
Inflation and Monetary Policy Signals
Chinese inflation data for September (Wednesday, 15 October) will be monitored for signs of demand weakness or supply-side pressures. Consumer price trends remain subdued, reflecting cautious household spending despite government stimulus efforts. Producer prices, which have been in deflationary territory for extended periods, will indicate whether industrial overcapacity concerns persist.
Additionally, new yuan loans, M2 money supply, and loan growth figures (Tuesday, 14 October) will reveal whether Beijing's monetary easing measures are gaining traction in credit markets. These metrics are crucial for assessing the effectiveness of China's policy response to economic headwinds.
Eurozone Industrial Production and Trade
Manufacturing Sector Health
The eurozone's industrial production data for August (Wednesday, 15 October) will provide insights into the health of the bloc's manufacturing base. Recent surveys, including S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, have indicated sluggish activity across major economies, including Germany, France, and Italy. Additionally, the Eurozone CPI report on Friday, 17 October, may provide further insight into the general economic state of the bloc.
Trade Balance Implications
Eurozone trade balance figures for August (Thursday) will shed light on export competitiveness and the impact of global trade tensions on European manufacturers. Italy's separate trade balance release (also Thursday, 16 October) will offer additional granular detail on one of the bloc's major manufacturing economies.
These releases come as the European Central Bank continues to navigate the balance between supporting growth through lower interest rates and maintaining price stability. Any signs of renewed manufacturing weakness could reinforce expectations for further ECB policy accommodation.
United Kingdom: GDP and Labour Market Focus
Economic Growth at a Crossroads
The UK's monthly GDP figure for August (Thursday, 16 October) stands as one of the week's most significant releases for sterling traders. Recent data showed the economy stagnating in July, and ongoing employment concerns have raised questions about fiscal policy ahead of November's Budget.
According to sources like S&P Global Market Intelligence, "Prior data showed the economy flatlining in July and ongoing steep job losses, the latter largely blamed on last year's Budget.” The August GDP release will include breakdowns for manufacturing, services, and construction output, providing a comprehensive view of sectoral performance.
Labour Market Deterioration
Tuesday's (14 October) UK Labour Market Report for August will be scrutinised for signs of continued employment weakness. Recent PMI survey data have pointed to ongoing job cuts, raising concerns about consumer spending power and overall economic momentum.
S&P Global Market Intelligence observes that "More weak data could tip the scales further toward rate cuts by the Bank of England," noting that two of nine policymakers voted to reduce rates at the last meeting due to growth concerns. The Bank currently holds rates at 4.0%, but mounting evidence of economic weakness could prompt a shift towards a more accommodative stance.
Other Key Releases
Singapore GDP
Singapore's advanced Q3 GDP (Tuesday, 14 October) will provide an early indication of growth in one of Asia's most trade-dependent economies. As a bellwether for regional activity, Singapore's performance often signals broader trends affecting emerging Asian markets.
India Inflation and Trade
India's September inflation data (Monday, 13 October) and wholesale price index (Tuesday) will reveal price pressures in one of the world's fastest-growing major economies. Trade figures (Wednesday) will meanwhile show how India's export sector is navigating global headwinds.
Australia Employment
Australian employment change for September (Thursday, 16 October) will be watched for signs of labour market resilience in the face of moderating economic growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained a cautious stance, and employment trends will influence future policy decisions.
S&P Global Investment Manager Index
The S&P Global Investment Manager Index (IMI) for October (Tuesday, 14 October) will reveal shifts in institutional US equity investor sentiment. September's survey showed heightened risk aversion amid concerns over valuations and the political environment. October's reading will indicate whether these concerns have intensified or moderated following recent market movements. (Source: S&P Global)
Earnings this Week
Besides the above, traders and investors may want to keep track of the following earnings reports:
Tuesday, 14 October:
Wednesday, 15 October:
Thursday, 16 October:
Conclusion
The week of 13-17 October 2025 may present traders with a challenging information environment. The potential absence of key US economic data due to the government shutdown creates uncertainty at a critical juncture for global markets. With headline US inflation last recorded at 2.9% and core inflation at 3.1% in August, market participants remain vigilant for any signs that tariff-related price pressures are being passed through to consumer prices.
In this data-constrained environment, international releases take on heightened importance. Chinese trade figures will provide evidence of the tariff's impact on global commerce, UK data will reveal whether fiscal concerns are translating into economic weakness, and eurozone industrial production will gauge the health of the manufacturing sector. US industrial production data, if released, will be scrutinised for signs of domestic strength or vulnerability.
Traders should prepare for potentially elevated volatility as markets adjust to incomplete information and position ahead of future central bank meetings. The interplay between growth concerns, inflation trends, and policy expectations will likely drive price action across asset classes throughout the week.
*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions:
Can the US government shutdown affect market trading this week?
The shutdown threatens to delay or cancel the release of crucial economic indicators, including CPI, PPI, and retail sales data. This creates an information vacuum that may increase market volatility as traders rely on alternative data sources and international releases to gauge economic conditions. Industrial production data from the Federal Reserve should still be released, providing some insight into US economic activity. Still, only time will tell what lies ahead.
What are the key data releases to watch if US inflation figures are unavailable?
Traders and consumers may want to focus on US industrial production (Friday), Federal Reserve regional manufacturing surveys (New York Empire State on Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed on Thursday), Chinese inflation and trade data (Monday and Wednesday), UK GDP and employment (Tuesday and Thursday), and eurozone industrial production (Wednesday).
How might China's trade data influence global markets?
China's September trade figures will reveal the extent to which US tariffs are impacting export performance and whether domestic stimulus measures are offsetting external pressures. Weak export numbers could signal broader concerns about a global trade slowdown, while resilient figures might ease worries about the tariff impact. These releases often affect commodity prices, Asian equity markets, and currencies sensitive to China's economic health.
What implications do UK GDP and employment data have for the pound?
Weak GDP or employment figures could strengthen expectations for Bank of England rate cuts, weighing on sterling. The data comes ahead of November's Budget, and evidence of economic weakness might influence fiscal policy decisions. Two BoE policymakers already voted for rate cuts at the last meeting, so further deterioration could shift the balance towards monetary easing.
Should traders adjust their strategies given the lack of US data this week?
Yes, traders should prepare for potentially higher volatility and wider spreads due to reduced market certainty. Consider focusing on instruments tied to economies with confirmed data releases (e.g., the UK, China, and the eurozone) and exercise caution with positions heavily dependent on US inflation expectations until data availability is confirmed. Risk management becomes particularly important in this environment.
