Week Ahead: NFPs, PMI, Central Bank Meetings & Big Tech Events

In the first week of October 2023, several economic events from some of the world’s biggest economies are scheduled to take place. From the US to the Eurozone and Australia, here are this week’s main upcoming events:

US NFPs, PMI, and More

This week marks an important one for the world’s biggest economy as economic data such as Nonfarm Payrolls (NFPs), Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and Jobs data are set to be released, providing a valuable indication of where the US economy may be heading in the near future and in the final months of 2023.

On Tuesday, the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is expected to be released. The JOLTS is a survey that reflects the amount of job openings, hirings, and turnovers there were in a month. On Tuesday, the JOLTS data will reveal how these factors played out in August.

In addition to JOLTS, on Friday, the US NFPs for September are scheduled to be released. NFPs are considered one of the most important economic releases as it is anticipated by consumers, traders, analysts, and the Federal Reserve. This is because,NFPs, which are also survey-based reports, gauge the health of the US labor market. Accordingly, Friday’s release can affect the Fed’s decisions and the markets. Some even note that “a stronger-than-expected reading could underline the Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ stance, weighing on markets.”

While the NFP data is still unknown, some experts posit that Friday’s September NFPs are expected to show that 163,000 jobs have been added in September. If these predictions materialize, then it would be a slowdown from August’s 187,000 jobs. 

Other key releases in the US include Wednesday’s ISM services PMI. The services PMI, which is an index that measures the non-manufacturing industries’ business health and conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers, is expected to show a slowdown in growth. 

As such, traders, consumers, and analysts may want to track this week’s results to see how the world’s biggest economy is faring and how this may affect the markets and other economies as well. 

Speeches and Comments by Powell and Lagarde

It is no secret that Central Banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) play a crucial role in shaping a country's economic path and development. Consequently, staying informed about recent addresses from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde this week can provide valuable insights for individuals looking to understand the current state of the global economy and anticipate future trends in the coming months.

As such, today, Monday, Fed Chair Powell is expected to participate in a roundtable discussion with community leaders, business owners, and workers. In addition, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will also make appearances this week.

Lagarde, on the other hand, is expected to make a speech on Wednesday. Both speeches come against the backdrop of recent data in the US and the Eurozone showing that inflation was running at record highs in the bloc and showing signs of progress in the US. Nonetheless, despite showing a slight improvement in the latter, recent data also indicated that energy prices were soaring in both the US and the Eurozone and further interest rate hikes may be warranted. 

It will be interesting, therefore, to see whether these Central Bank Officials will reveal anything substantial regarding inflation and monetary policy decisions. 

Central Banks’ Meetings: RBA and RBNZ

Beyond the US and the Eurozone, this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will hold their monetary meetings. On Tuesday, the RBA will have its first meeting with its new Governor, Michele Bullock, who is considered “the first woman to head the bank.” The meeting will reveal how the Central Bank will tackle economic issues in Australia as price pressures continue to take a toll on Australia’s service sector. 

Following the RBA’s meeting, the RBNZ will hold a meeting on Wednesday, and many traders may look for signs of whether or not the bank will hike rates in November. 

Events by Google and Zoom 

On Tuesday, video communications giant, Zoom (ZM), is expected to hold its Zoomtopia event in San Jose, California. Zoomtopia is Zoom’s annual conference whereby users can get access to Zoom’s future developments and visions and hear about its latest products and announcements.  

In addition on Wednesday, Alphabet (GOOG) will host its “Made By Google” event in New York where it’s expected to reveal new products such as the Pixel Watch 2, Pixel 8, and the Pixel 8 Pro. 

The Unofficial Holiday Shopping Season Is Here

Besides the tech sphere, this week marks an important one for the retail sector and companies like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) as the “unofficial” holiday shopping season begins.

Amidst soaring inflation, escalating prices, economic upheaval, and even the impact of global warming, how will retail companies navigate the challenges during this holiday season? (Source:Reuters)

Conclusion

In conclusion, a new month is here and new market events await both traders and consumers alike. Staying informed about these events and being aware of what else this month has in store can provide valuable insights into the potential direction of the economy as the year draws nearer to an end.