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Tuesday 16 December 2025
Economic Calendar 28 July: Fed Rates, Trade Talks & Earnings
The week of 28 July brings pivotal economic events that could reshape market sentiment, featuring the Federal Reserve's policy decision, high-stakes US-China trade negotiations, and earnings from tech giants including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta.
TL;DR
The Fed meets from 29 to 30 July; no rate cut is expected, but markets will watch closely for guidance on possible September action.
U.S.-China trade talks will take place from 28 to 29 July in Stockholm.
Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Visa, Mastercard, Berkshire Hathaway, among other companies, report earnings this week.
Key U.S. data releases include Core PCE, Consumer Confidence, JOLTS, and July NFP on 1 August.
Eurozone GDP, inflation, retail sales, and sentiment surveys will shape expectations for ECB policy.
US-China Trade Negotiations: Market-Moving Developments
What's at Stake in Stockholm?
Trade discussions between the world's two largest economies resume Monday and Tuesday (28-29 July) in Stockholm, Sweden. US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng lead these critical negotiations.
Primary objectives include:
Extending the 90-day US-China tariff truce (expires 12 August)
Addressing China's manufacturing overcapacity
Boosting Chinese consumer demand
Discussing Chinese purchases of sanctioned Russian oil
Both sides have expressed cautious optimism, with Secretary Bessent stating talks are "in a very good place," while China emphasises "mutual respect and win-win cooperation."
Potential Market Impact of Trade Talks
These negotiations can influence:
Global supply chains
Currency movements (USD/CNY, particularly sensitive)
Commodity prices (industrial metals, energy)
Technology sector performance
Federal Reserve Rate Decision: What to Expect
When Is the Fed Meeting?
The Federal Reserve will hold its fifth monetary policy meeting of the year on 29-30 July.
Why This Meeting Matters
This rate decision carries heightened significance due to:
Ongoing US-China trade tensions
Political pressure from President Trump's criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Mixed economic signals require careful policy calibration
Will the Fed Cut Rates?
Current expectations:
No immediate rate cut is anticipated at this meeting.
Markets will scrutinise Fed communications for signals about potential September adjustments. Morgan Stanley economists predict Powell will "again emphasise patience" given tariff uncertainty and economic volatility.
Key indicators the Fed is monitoring:
Employment strength (NFP Friday)
Trade policy impacts on growth
Earnings Season: Tech Giants Reports & More
Major corporations release quarterly earnings this week, with technology stocks taking centre stage given their potential market influence.
Tuesday, 29 July
Wednesday, 30 July
Thursday, 31 July
Friday, 1 August
Critical Economic Data Releases
Besides the above, traders and investors may want to keep tabs on the following reports:
Tuesday, 29 July
Spain's GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Spain Retail Sales
Italy Trade Balance
Bank of England (BoE) Consumer Credit
U.S. House Price Index
U.S. CB Consumer Confidence
U.S. JOLTS Job Openings
Australia CPI (Consumer Confidence Index)
Wednesday, 30 July
France Consumer Spending
France GDP
Germany Retail Sales
Spain CPI
Italy GDP
Germany GDP
Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectation
Eurozone Business and Consumer Survey
Eurozone GDP
U.S. Core PCE Prices (Personal Consumption Expenditure)
U.S. Real Consumer Spending
Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, 31 July
Japan Construction Orders
Singapore Business Expectations
Switzerland Retail Sales
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Press Conference
France CPI
Germany CPI
Italy CPI
Eurozone Employment Rate
Italy PPI
Canada GDP
Friday, 1 August
Australia Commodity Prices
Spain Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index)
France Manufacturing PMI
Germany Manufacturing PMI
Italy Retail Sales
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls)
Singapore Manufacturing PMI
U.S. Manufacturing PMI
Potential Market Implications & Trading Considerations
Currency Markets
USD strength usually depends on Fed hawkishness and trade progress
EUR performance tends to be tied to Eurozone GDP and ECB policy expectations
BoJ communications can influence JPY movements
Equity Markets
The technology sector tends to be vulnerable to earnings disappointments
Financial stocks can be sensitive to the interest rate outlook
Energy shares may be affected by geopolitical developments
Commodity Markets
Gold prices can be affected by Fed policy signals
China's demand and trade talks can influence oil markets
Industrial metals tend to be tied to manufacturing data
Still, it is essential to note that these are just projections and only time will tell what actually lies ahead. (Source: Bloomberg)
Conclusion
The final days of July bring a dense mix of geopolitical negotiations, central bank decisions, and high-stakes corporate earnings that may set the tone for markets entering August.
Traders and investors may want to watch U.S.-China trade developments for potential tariff implications, follow the Fed’s policy signals for clues on rate cuts later this year, and monitor global economic indicators for signs of slowing or resilient growth.
With so many moving parts, volatility could increase across equities, currencies, and commodities.
*Past performance does not reflect future results.
FAQs:
Why are the U.S.-China trade talks important for markets?
They can influence tariffs, global trade flows, and investor sentiment, particularly in manufacturing, technology, and commodities.
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates this week?
Many believe a rate cut is unlikely at this meeting, but markets will listen for guidance on potential adjustments in September.
Which earnings reports could have the biggest market impact?
Tech giants (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta), financial institutions, and energy companies may drive sector-wide moves.
Which economic indicators should traders monitor closely?
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Eurozone GDP, inflation data (CPI), and consumer confidence figures are key for assessing global economic health.
How might these events affect trading volatility?
Unexpected trade headlines, central bank remarks, or earnings surprises could trigger sharp market reactions, especially in currencies, indices, and commodities.
