July 2025 CPI Reports: All You Need to Know

Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports from major world economies are set to be released this week, providing consumers and traders with key information about inflation worldwide. 

Let’s dive into the upcoming CPI reports and what traders can expect:

TL;DR

• U.S. CPI (15 July): Inflation is likely to be steady near 2.4% YoY; core at 2.8%. Shelter remains key driver.

• Spain CPI (15 July): A 2.2% year-over-year increase is anticipated, primarily influenced by rising fuel and food prices. This figure is expected to align with the final data.

• Eurozone CPI (17 July): Core inflation is holding steady at 2.3%, with a 2.0% year-over-year CPI expected. This is due to persistent service costs and decreasing energy prices, which could influence European Central Bank decisions.

Scheduled CPI Reports

U.S. CPI on Tuesday, 15 July

Recent CPI Snapshot (May 2025):

• Headline CPI: +2.4% year-over-year and +0.1% month-over-month

• Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +2.8% year-over-year  and +0.1% month-over-month

Market Expectations for the June 2025 CPI:

While specific consensus forecasts haven’t been formally published, recent inflation trends and analyst surveys suggest:

• Headline CPI: Likely to remain around +2.4% to +2.5% year-over-year, with a modest monthly increase of +0.1% to +0.2%

• Core CPI: Expected to hold near +2.8% year-over-year, with a similar monthly uptick

Broader Market Context:

The Fed's 2% inflation target is currently slightly exceeded. A string of tame inflation readings in recent months has fueled speculation about potential interest rate cuts later in the year.

Key Factors to Watch:

• Monthly CPI increases are primarily fueled by shelter costs.

• Food prices are increasing gradually, while energy prices have been trending downward.

• No major surprises are anticipated unless June data reveals an unexpected shock.

Investors and policymakers will be watching closely for any indications of either a reacceleration in inflation or continued signs of stabilisation. (Source: Reuters)

Spain CPI on Tuesday, 15 July

Preliminary June 2025 Data:

• Annual inflation rate: 2.2%, up from 2.0% in May. This marks the first uptick after three months of slowing inflation, which was driven mainly by rising fuel prices and increased costs for food and non-alcoholic beverages.

• Core inflation (excluding food and energy): 2.2%, unchanged from May.

• Monthly CPI change: +0.6% in June, compared to +0.1% in May.

Expectations for the Final Report:

The final data is widely expected to confirm the preliminary figures, showing a 2.2% year-over-year increase and a 0.6% monthly rise.

Key Inflation Drivers:

• Fuel and food prices are the primary contributors to the recent increase.

• This uptick contrasts with the decline recorded in June 2024 and follows a period of inflation moderation earlier in the year.

Market Outlook:

No major surprises are anticipated, as the preliminary numbers aligned closely with market expectations.

Forward Guidance:

Inflation in Spain is expected to remain relatively stable in the near term, with longer-term projections suggesting a gradual easing toward 1.9% by 2026.

Eurozone CPI on Thursday, 17 July

Eurozone CPI Snapshot – May 2025

• CPI level: 128.71 in May, down slightly from 128.77 in April (monthly change: -0.05%)

• Annual inflation hit 1.9%, an eight-month low and the first dip below the ECB’s 2% target since September 2024

• Core inflation reached 2.3%, the lowest level since January 2022

Key Drivers:

• Services inflation saw a significant decrease, dropping to 3.2% from 4.0% in April.

• Energy prices declined 3.6% year-over-year

• Non-energy industrial goods inflation held steady at 0.6%

• Food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation rose to 3.2%

June 2025 Outlook (Data Due 17 July)

• Annual inflation: Expected to edge up to 2.0%

• Monthly inflation: Forecast at +0.3%

• Core inflation: Likely to remain unchanged at 2.3%

Component Forecasts:

• Services: Inflation expected to rise slightly to 3.3%

• Food, alcohol, tobacco: Easing to 3.1%

• Industrial goods (non-energy): Slowing to 0.5%

• Energy: Still negative, but decline moderating to -2.7%

Broader Economic Context

• Disinflation trend: May marked the first time in nearly a year that inflation fell below the ECB’s target Core inflation: Though still above 2%, it’s at a three-year low, signalling weaker underlying pressures

• Policy expectations: Cooling inflation has strengthened the case for ECB rate cuts, with a 25 bp cut likely in the second half of 2025 Country trends: Germany’s inflation has fallen unexpectedly, while France and Spain are seeing mild increases; Italy remains steady

• Growth outlook: Economic activity across the eurozone remains sluggish, weighed down by weak external demand and cautious consumers

Key Watchpoints

• Services inflation: Still a key driver of price pressures, any further rise could delay ECB easing

• Energy prices: Still falling but less sharply; any reversal could lift headline inflation

• Food inflation: Still above 3% but gradually slowing

• ECB decisions: Markets are closely watching how the central bank responds to persistent core and services inflation Diverging national trends: Varying inflation paths among eurozone members add complexity to policymaking

• External risks: Global commodity prices, geopolitical developments, and supply chain disruptions remain influential

Conclusion 

As the latest CPI reports from the U.S., Spain, and the Eurozone roll in this week, investors and policymakers will gain valuable insight into global inflation trends. While inflation appears to moderate in most regions, core pressures remain persistent, especially from services and food. With interest rate decisions on the horizon, these reports will help shape the monetary policy direction for the rest of 2025.

*Past performance does not reflect future results. These are only projections.

FAQs:

When will the next CPI reports be released?

• U.S. and Spain: Tuesday, July 15

• Eurozone: Thursday, July 17

What is the forecast for U.S. CPI?

Analysts expect headline inflation to remain near 2.4%–2.5% YoY for June, with core CPI around 2.8%.

What’s driving Spain’s inflation increase?

A rebound in fuel and rising food prices led to the first inflation uptick after three months of deceleration.

Has Eurozone inflation dropped below the target?

Yes. May’s headline inflation was 1.9%, the first time below the ECB’s 2% target since September 2024.

Will this affect interest rates?

The CPI reports may affect interest rate decisions. Softer inflation data has increased expectations for the ECB and potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025. Still, only time will tell what will actually take place.