CPI September 2025 Preview: Spain, Germany, Poland & Eurozone Inflation Forecasts

Next week is set to be eventful with key inflation releases emerging from some of the world’s biggest economies, the Eurozone, Spain, Germany, and Poland.

As such, traders and investors may want to keep track of what is expected from these key releases. Let’s dive in:

TL;DR

• Spain CPI (29 Sept): 2.7% YoY expected, matching August levels

• Poland CPI (30 Sept): 2.7% YoY forecast, down from 2.9% in August

• Germany CPI Flash (30 Sept): Key indicator for Eurozone inflation trends

• Eurozone CPI Flash (1 Oct): 2.0-2.1% YoY expected, supporting ECB policy stance

Spain CPI September 2025 Forecast

Spain will report its Consumer Price Index on Monday, 29 September 2025. The consensus market expectation for Spain's September CPI year-on-year (YoY) is 2.7%, which matches the previous month's result. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, economists forecast a flat reading of 0.0%.

Expected Figures

• CPI YoY forecast: 2.7%

• CPI MoM forecast: 0.0%

• Previous result (August 2025): 2.7% YoY, 0.0% MoM

Recent economic modelling suggests minor fluctuations are expected for the coming months, with annual inflation rates holding near 2.7%, slightly below last quarter's peak. Core inflation remains stable at approximately 2.4%, according to data from Spain's National Statistics Institute (INE).

Poland CPI Outlook

Poland's CPI  flash estimate for September 2025 will be released on Tuesday, 30 September 2025. Market expectations for Poland's CPI (YoY) forecast a slight decrease to 2.7% from August's 2.9%. The month-on-month consensus points to a flat or slightly negative reading near 0.0%.

Key Details

• CPI YoY forecast: 2.7%

• CPI MoM forecast: 0.0%

• Previous result (August 2025): 2.9% YoY, 0.0% MoM

This release is particularly important for tracking Polish inflation momentum heading into Q4 2025, as the National Bank of Poland closely monitors these figures for interest rate policy decisions.

Germany CPI Flash Estimate

Germany's Consumer Price Index flash estimate will be released on Tuesday, 30 September 2025. This preliminary data often serves as a key indicator for broader Eurozone inflation trends. The full and final CPI data for September typically follow in the first week of October.

Release Schedule

• Flash CPI estimate: 30 September 2025, 12:00 CET

• Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP): Also updates on 30 September 2025

These dates are official according to the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) and European Central Statistical Calendars. Germany's inflation data carries significant weight in ECB policy considerations due to the country's economic prominence within the Eurozone.

Eurozone CPI Flash Preview

The Eurozone Consumer Price Index flash estimate for September 2025 is scheduled for release on Wednesday, 1 October 2025. This data point will be closely watched by European Central Bank policymakers and market participants alike.

Inflation Expectations

• August 2025 result: 2.1% year-on-year, slightly above July's 2.0%

• September 2025 consensus: Inflation expected to remain stable near 2.0-2.1% YoY

• Core inflation: Steady at 2.3% in August (excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco)

According to Eurostat data and ECB projections, Eurozone inflation has been hovering near the ECB's 2% target for three consecutive months. This stability supports current monetary policy expectations and suggests continued alignment with the central bank's price stability mandate. (Source: TradingEconomics)

Market Impact Analysis

These CPI releases could influence:

• EUR currency pairs and cross-currency volatility

• European equity indices performance

• ECB interest rate expectations for upcoming policy meetings

• Bond market movements across European sovereign debt

Traders should monitor these data points for potential market-moving implications, particularly given the current economic environment and ongoing geopolitical considerations affecting European markets.

Conclusion

The upcoming week's inflation data from Spain, Germany, Poland, and the broader Eurozone will be pivotal for traders monitoring European Central Bank policy signals. With inflation hovering near the ECB's 2% target, these Consumer Price Index releases could influence interest rate expectations and currency movements.

Key factors to monitor:

• Spain's inflation stability at 2.7%

• Poland's potential moderation from 2.9% to 2.7%

• Germany's flash estimate impact on Eurozone trends

• Overall Eurozone inflation consistency around 2.0-2.1%

Trading considerations: Monitor EUR currency pairs and European indices for volatility around these releases, particularly following Germany's flash estimate on 30 September and the Eurozone data on 1 October.

*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice.