Trump's First Day Sparks Reactions
Tuesday 21 January 2025
Global Volatility: Mixed U.S. Gains & East Asian Tumult
This week’s latest trading sessions have left market watchers plenty of data to chew on as shifts from the East Coast to East Asia have increased volatility. Let’s take a closer look:
Tuesday’s Mixed Trading Bag
On Tuesday, 3 December 2024, major U.S. indices' trading results were a mixed bag as investors reacted to the latest American job market data, and comments from Federal Reserve officials raised questions about the FOMC's near-term trajectory.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs yesterday, closing up by 0.05% and over 0.3% respectively. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA 30) dipped by almost 0.2% showing that market sentiment on the trading floors of Wall Street may have been ambivalent.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that October job openings climbed to over 7.7 million, surpassing expectations of slightly more than 7.5 million. Despite the increase, the report indicated slower hiring activity, while the quits rate, reflecting worker confidence, showed a slight rise. This Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) marks the first in a series of key economic indicators set to culminate with the release on Friday, 6 December, of the U.S.’ payroll report.
Furthermore, major Federal Reserve policymakers indicated that interest rates could be in for a further reduction as monetary policymakers in the world's largest economy move toward a more neutral stance with regard to the federal funds rate. Market expectations now seem to be that the FOMC's next summit, set to conclude on 18 December, could result in a 0.25% cut. However, this could quickly shift should Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s 4 December address present contraindications to this stance. (Source: Yahoo Finance)
East Asian Rollercoaster
On the other edge of the Pacific Rim, political uproar in South Korea made its mark on Wednesday’s trading.
On Tuesday night, President Yoon Suk Yeol declared the institution of martial law throughout the control, under the pretext of purported attempts by the country’s geopolitical rival, North Korea, to overthrow its democratic government. However, this state of affairs lasted only six hours before the law’s revocation, and opposition parties in the South Korean parliament are already calling for the president’s resignation.
At the nexus of political and commercial tensions between China and the United States, authorities of the former announced on 3 December that a large number of key materials used for military and technological applications would no longer be available for export to the latter. This policy shift came in the wake of America’s decision to tightly regulate the export of a wide array of chip-related products to China, raising questions as to how far this tit-for-tat could escalate.
In the wake of this turmoil, it may come as no surprise to savvy market watchers that the ripple effects are being seen across major indices. As of the time of writing, the Hong Kong-based Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong 50) is down by almost 0.1%, while the China A50 and Australia’s ASX 200 have registered drops of 0.02% and nearly 0.4%, respectively. While South Korean authorities have stated that they are prepared to spend over $7 billion to keep the country’s financial market stable, the outlook for South Korea’s politics as well as the region’s economy as a whole, in the wake of Sino-American tensions, remains as yet unclear.
Conclusion
With uncertainty springing from a range of different sources in the current environment, the markets’ trajectory seems uncertain. Investors and traders alike will have to wait for further indications of policy moves from the policymakers of the world’s largest economies before the way forward becomes clearer.
