Black Friday 2025: Market Signals to Watch

For many shopaholics and bargain hunters, Black Friday and Cyber Monday are long-awaited events and days. 

Popular brands from various sectors bombard their clients with attractive deals, whether online or offline, and the internet is flooded with offers during these two holidays. 

But these days, they far surpass the realm of shopping and could also interest traders and investors due to their effects on the stock market. 

Here’s what you need to know about Black Friday and why it should interest traders and investors as well as consumers:

TL;DR

• Black Friday 2025 date: Friday, 28 November, the year's busiest shopping day and unofficial start of holiday shopping season

• Cyber Monday 2025 date: Monday, 1 December, focusing on online retail deals

• 2024 performance: Black Friday 2024 achieved a record $10.8 billion in online sales, up 10.2% year-over-year (Adobe Analytics)

• 2025 forecasts: National Retail Federation projects 2.7–3.7% retail sales growth, reaching $5.42–$5.48 trillion; online Black Friday sales expected between $10.8–$12.5 billion

• Market impact: Strong Black Friday sales can boost market sentiment, particularly in retail stocks, serving as a key economic indicator

• Trading hours: US markets close early on Black Friday (1 p.m. ET); retail stocks historically outperform broader indices during this period

• Historical context: Retail stocks averaged 5% returns during Black Friday periods compared to 3% for the S&P 500 (2007–2017 period)

• Economic significance: Consumer spending represents approximately 70% of US GDP, making Black Friday data a valuable sentiment measure for the broader economy

What Is Black Friday?

Known as one of the most anticipated and celebrated retail holidays, Black Friday refers to the Friday following Thanksgiving in the USA. 

Black Friday is considered the busiest shopping day in the year and usually takes place on the fourth Friday of November unless the 1st of November falls on a Friday. 

Moreover, it is worth noting that this day has grown to become a good indicator of the Christmas shopping season, and many retailers carry on with these holiday sales till Monday, which is famously known as Cyber Monday for online retailers. 

Walmart (WMT), for example, usually begins its Cyber Monday sales as early as 12:01 a.m. on Thanksgiving day. 

What Is Thanksgiving and How Does It Affect Trading Hours?

Thanksgiving is a US federal holiday that falls on the last Thursday of November and celebrates the year’s harvest and blessings as those celebrating it “give thanks” to the year’s harvest. 

Besides being a federal holiday, it is important to note that Thanksgiving is a stock market holiday which means that US equity markets are closed for trading that day.  This year, Thanksgiving will fall on Thursday, 27 November, during which trading will be halted.

However, even though markets close on Thanksgiving, this holiday has become crucial for businesses, especially in the food industry. 

Trading Hours on Black Friday 2025

Usually, US markets will close earlier than usual, and trading will stop at 1 p.m. ET.

Origins: The History of Black Friday

Historically, the origin of Black Friday was not as gleeful as it is today. Many trace the origin of Black Friday to the US financial crisis in 1869, whereby the prices of gold plummeted. 

Thereafter, the same phrase was used to refer to retail stores’ poor sales, which were driven by their underperformance as they were “in the red.”

These fortunes were turned when, on the day after Thanksgiving, retailers were back "in the black" due to shoppers spending their money at lower prices, which is believed to have given the modern Black Friday its name. (Source: CountryLiving)

The Monday following Thanksgiving and Black Friday is called “Cyber Monday." It is also an important retail holiday (held online) during which consumers can enjoy discounts, promotions, and sales. Black Monday emerged to encourage people to shop online. 

How Did Cyber Monday Emerge?

Back in 2005, a division within the National Retail Federation (NRF) called “Shop.org” came up with the term “Black Friday” after noticing that online shopping rose on the Monday after Thanksgiving over the years. 

Black Friday extends far beyond the shopping realm, carrying potential macroeconomic implications that interest traders and investors. The event's strong sales performance can affect the economy by providing insights into overall economic health and sector-specific performance.

Economic Significance

Consumer spending comprises approximately 70% of the United States' Gross Domestic Product (GDP), making Black Friday data a valuable measure of economic sentiment and consumer confidence (Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Since analysts and economists forecast Black Friday sales in advance, actual performance data influences market sentiment, which subsequently affects stock valuations across retail and related sectors.

2024 Performance Data

Black Friday 2024 achieved record-breaking results:

• Online sales: $10.8 billion, representing a 10.2% increase year-over-year

• Total BFCM sales (Black Friday through Cyber Monday): $24.1 billion, up 15.3% from 2023's $20.9 billion

• Cyber Week sales: $70.8 billion, reflecting 5% year-over-year growth

Market Sentiment and Stock Performance

Traders, investors, and market analysts monitor consumer spending patterns during Black Friday to gauge whether a particularly profitable shopping season lies ahead. Strong sales typically reflect positively in company share prices, whilst weaker-than-expected performance may indicate economic concerns about a specific company, sector, or broader economy.

Historical Stock Market Performance

According to historical data analysis, select retail stocks from the S&P 500 posted an average 5% return from 2007 to 2017 during Black Friday periods, compared with the S&P 500's 3% average return during the same timeframe.

2024 Market Performance

Following Black Friday 2024, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% whilst the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%, with both indices closing November 2024 with their best monthly performances of the year. Technology stocks and retail equities led gains during this period. 

Sector-Specific Performance

When focusing on the retail industry specifically, data shows that during 2018 and 2019, the S&P 500 Retailing Industry Group outperformed the broader S&P 500 index. Historical analysis from 2013 to 2023 indicates that the retail sector consistently outperformed the S&P 500 in late November.

In 2024, the consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors, which include most retailers, rose 23% and 16% respectively, demonstrating strong performance linked to robust consumer spending patterns. (Source: Yahoo Finance)

The Holiday Effect

According to the 'holiday effect' phenomenon, trading volumes typically increase in stock markets following holidays, potentially due to investors rushing to close positions before the end of trading days. Since US markets close on Thanksgiving and for half a day on Black Friday, investing and trading volumes tend to increase before these holidays.

The same pattern may apply to Cyber Monday. Notably, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Cyber Monday achieved approximately $10.8 billion in online spending as lockdowns accelerated digital commerce adoption.

Important Note: The effects of Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday on the economy and markets should not be considered absolute predictors and may prove short-lived. Historical performance does not guarantee future results.

What to Watch for Black Friday 2025

Forecasts and Projections

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that 2025 retail sales will grow between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024, reaching between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion. Online sales are expected to increase 7% to 9%.

More specifically for Black Friday 2025:

• Online Black Friday sales projection: $10.8–$12.5 billion (various analyst estimates)

• Holiday season growth forecast: 4.0% growth in US retail sales (Bain & Company)

• Consumer spending per shopper: Average of $340 on Black Friday and $300 on Cyber Monday (Omnisend survey data)

Key Factors Influencing 2025 Performance

Several factors may influence Black Friday 2025 outcomes:

• Consumer confidence levels as economic conditions evolve

• Early promotional periods as retailers extend Black Friday sales earlier into November

• Online versus in-store shopping mix as digital commerce continues growing

• Economic headwinds, including inflation concerns and interest rate environment

• Deloitte forecasts consumer spending to grow 3.1% in 2025, with durable goods spending expected to remain particularly strong at 4.7%. 

Stocks and Sectors to Monitor

Traders may wish to monitor performance across several categories:

• Major retailers: Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Costco (COST)

• E-commerce platforms: Amazon and online retail specialists

• Consumer discretionary sector: Broader retail and consumer goods companies

• Technology stocks: Payment processors and e-commerce infrastructure providers

Trading Considerations for Black Friday 2025

Market Hours

• Wednesday, 26 November (Day Before Thanksgiving): Normal trading hours but typically lighter volume

• Thursday, 27 November (Thanksgiving): US markets CLOSED

• Friday, 28 November (Black Friday): Markets close early at 1 p.m. ET

• Monday, 1 December (Cyber Monday): Normal trading hours resume

What Traders Should Monitor

• Early sales data: Preliminary reports typically emerge on Black Friday evening or Saturday

• Retail stock price movements: Individual company performance versus sector trends

• Comparative year-over-year data: Growth rates compared to 2024's record performance

• Sector rotation patterns: Whether strong retail performance draws capital from other sectors

• Economic sentiment indicators: How consumer spending patterns align with broader economic forecasts

Risk Considerations

• Short-term volatility: Holiday-shortened trading weeks can experience increased volatility

• Lower liquidity: Reduced trading volumes may amplify price movements

• Analyst revisions: Post-Black Friday performance data often triggers analyst rating changes

• Broader economic context: Individual company or sector strength should be assessed within the overall economic conditions

Conclusion

Black Friday 2025 represents more than a shopping event; it serves as an economic indicator that offers insights into consumer confidence, spending patterns, and potential market direction during the critical holiday season.

With projections indicating modest but positive growth for the 2025 holiday season, traders and investors will closely monitor Black Friday performance data for signals about the health of the retail sector and broader economic trends.

As markets prepare for the holiday season, Black Friday 2025 will provide valuable data points. Still, these should be considered as part of a comprehensive analysis rather than definitive predictors of market direction.

*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice.