Markets Rally as U.S. Shutdown Ends; Gold Surges, Oil Falls on OPEC Outlook
Thursday 13 November 2025
Key Market Events for 1-5 September 2025 - US Non-Farm Payrolls & Market Events
The first week of September 2025 presents critical market catalysts, including the U.S. employment, Eurozone CPI, and earnings reports that could drive volatility across equity indices, currency pairs, and commodity markets.
The week's economic calendar features several high-impact releases that could significantly influence trading opportunities. From the highly anticipated U.S. employment report to ongoing speculation around Federal Reserve policy decisions, traders will need to navigate a complex landscape of economic indicators.
TL;DR
Most Important Events This Week:
Monday, 1 September: The U.S. stock markets, including the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq, will be closed in observance of Labour Day.
Wednesday, 3 September: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data - Could impact oil as markets assess supply-demand dynamics
Friday, 5 September: U.S. employment report - Expected to show labour market normalisation following July's disappointing 73,000 jobs addition
Companies like Lululemon, Nio, Broadcom, Zsclaer, Salesforce, and Macy’s will report earnings.
Key markets to watch:
Equity indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, FTSE 100)
Currency pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY)
Commodity (Oil, Gold, Industrial metals)
Key Events This Week
Tuesday, 2 September 2025
Eurozone CPI data
Wednesday, 3 September 2025
Eurozone manufacturing PMI revisions
Market Impact: Could be medium for EUR currency pairs
Thursday, 4 September 2025
U.S. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Market Impact: Could be high for oil
Friday, 5 September 2025
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Previous: 73K, Expected: 120K)
U.S. Unemployment Rate (Previous: 4.2%, Expected: 4.1%)
Average Hourly Earnings (Previous: 0.3% MoM, Expected: 0.3%)
Market Impact: Could be very High for all major markets
US Employment Report Analysis
Why is Friday's employment report so critical for traders? The U.S. employment report serves as the week's primary market-moving event, following July's disappointing non-farm payrolls figure of just 73,000 jobs added, well below the 110,000 forecast.
Key metrics to watch:
Non-farm payrolls: Expected to rebound to approximately 120,000
Unemployment rate: Forecast to improve slightly to 4.1% from 4.2%
Average hourly earnings: Month-on-month growth expected at 0.3%
Labour force participation: Critical for Fed policy assessment
Historical context: The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2% from 4.1% in July, signalling potential softening in the labour market that has become central to Federal Reserve policy considerations. This data carries particular significance as Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller, have indicated support for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming September FOMC meeting.
Potential Trading implications: Employment data historically may drive volatility in:
USD currency pairs, particularly EUR/USD and GBP/USD
Major U.S. equity indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
Gold as a safe-haven demand fluctuates
Oil Market Analysis
What could drive oil prices this week? Wednesday's EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will provide fresh insights into U.S. crude oil inventory levels, following recent declines that have supported oil prices.
Recent inventory data:
Crude oil inventories fell by 0.974 million barrels (week ending 22 August 2025)
Previous week: 2.4 million-barrel decline
Current inventory levels: 822.49 million barrels
Factors affecting oil markets:
Supply-demand dynamics: Inventory changes indicate market balance
Geopolitical developments: Middle East tensions remain a factor
Dollar strength: Inverse correlation with oil prices
Earnings Reports
Besides the above, traders and investors may want to keep tabs on the following earnings of the week:
Tuesday, 2 September:
Wednesday, 3 September:
Thursday, 4 September:
Other Reports to Keep Track Of
Brazil GDP
Wednesday, 3 September:
South Korea's GDP
Australia GDP
South Africa GDP
U.S. JOLTS Job Openings
U.S. Factory Orders
Thursday, 4 September:
Australia Trade
Sweden Inflation
Switzerland Inflation
UK Construction PMI
Eurozone Retail Sales
Canada Trade
Friday, 5 September
Germany Factory orders
UK Retail Sales
UK Halifax House Price Index
France Trade
Taiwan Inflation
Eurozone GDP
Canada Unemployment
Potential Trading Implications
Which instruments offer the best trading opportunities this week?
USD Currency Pairs - Employment data impact
Commodity - Economic data sensitivity
(Source: S&P Global)
Conclusion
The first week of September 2025 presents a complex array of economic catalysts that could drive significant market movements across multiple asset classes. The U.S. employment report stands as the primary event, with potential to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and drive volatility in currency and equity markets.
Traders should prepare for heightened volatility around key data releases, particularly Friday's employment figures, while maintaining awareness of broader central bank policy trajectories in both the United States and Europe.
Understanding these economic drivers can be essential for effective trading strategies, whether focused on forex, indices, or commodities.
*Past performance does not reflect future results. The above are only projections and should not be taken as investment advice.
FAQs
What time is the U.S. employment report released?
The U.S. employment report is released at 13:30 GMT (8:30 AM Eastern Time) on the first Friday of each month. For September 2025, this will be Friday, 5 September.
How might weak employment data affect currency markets?
Weak employment data could strengthen expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially weakening the U.S. dollar against major currencies like the euro and British pound. This typically benefits EUR/USD and GBP/USD traders.
When does the EIA release oil inventory data?
The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report is released at 15:30 GMT (10:30 AM Eastern Time) every Wednesday, providing crucial data for oil traders.
